activity : nca4-heat-projections-for-msas-panel--5-process

nca4-heat-projections-for-msas-panel--5-process

Methodology:

Stage 1:
For each of the 32 CMIP5 models downscaled by LOCA (listed below), for each grid point, the annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 95F was determined for each year for the historical period (1950-2005), and under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emissions scenarios for the future period (2006-2100).

CMIP5 models:
ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC EARTH, FGOALS-g2, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-p1, GISS-E2-R-p1, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M

Stage 2:
1. CMIP5 model grid points within the Charleston, SC Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) were defined.
2. Time-ordered annual values of the average annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 95F for these grid cells were extracted for each model for the historical period, and under both the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios for the future period.
3. Averages over the periods of 1976-2005, 2016-2045, 2036-2065, and 2070-2099 were calculated for each grid cell, model, and scenario.
4. The change for each future time period, relative to 1976-2005, was calculated for each model, under each scenario.
5. Ensemble averages for each grid cell were calculated from these single-model averages using a vector of model weights, using the weighting strategy of Sanderson et al. (2017):
Sanderson, B. M., Wehner, M., and Knutti, R.: Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2379-2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017, 2017.
6. A spatial average of these values across all grid cells in the specified MSA, and an associated range across models were calculated. The range is defined as the difference between the 5th and 95th percentiles. The value of the 50th percentile was also calculated, each using the R quantiles function.
7. These values were graphed. For consistency in methodology between the mean and range calculations, percentile values were used. Minimal differences were found between the 50th percentile of models and the weighted multi-model mean.
See, "lmi_nca4_technical_documentation_v3.docx" and "README_tt_v2" for a more detailed methodology.

* The values of the 50th percentile across models for each time period under both the RCP4.5 (teal circles) and RCP8.5 (red circles) scenarios were plotted on a chart. * The range of model values (5th and 95th percentile) under both the RCP4.5 (teal lines) and RCP8.5 (red lines) scenarios were plotted on the same chart, coherent with the 50th percentile values for each time period.

Methodology Contact: Stage 1: Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina State University; Stage 2: Terence Thompson, LMI

Processes

How the source was modified: The average annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than 95F was determined from the LOCA data for the specified region. A weighted multi-model mean and the 5th, 95th, and 50th percentiles of model values were calculated.

The duration of this activity was 350 hours.

Interim artifacts generated by this activity :
Multiset.py, createJobList.py, loca_proc.py, loca/functions.py, loca/GridChunks.py, loca/output.py, loca/TimeUtils.py,renameHybrid.bash, runJobList.bash, runListTask.bash,joblistConfig.json, loca_config.json,ACCESS1-0_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, ACCESS1-0_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, ACCESS1-0_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, ACCESS1-3_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, ACCESS1-3_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, ACCESS1-3_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, bcc-csm1-1_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2099.nc, bcc-csm1-1_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2099.nc, bcc-csm1-1-m_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1-m_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, bcc-csm1-1-m_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CanESM2_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CanESM2_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CanESM2_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CCSM4_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CCSM4_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CCSM4_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CESM1-BGC_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-BGC_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CESM1-BGC_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CESM1-CAM5_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-CAM5_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CESM1-CAM5_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CMCC-CM_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CM_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CMCC-CM_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CMCC-CMS_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CMS_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CMCC-CMS_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CNRM-CM5_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CNRM-CM5_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CNRM-CM5_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, EC-EARTH_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, EC-EARTH_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, EC-EARTH_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, FGOALS-g2_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, FGOALS-g2_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, FGOALS-g2_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, GFDL-CM3_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-CM3_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, GFDL-CM3_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, GFDL-ESM2G_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2G_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, GFDL-ESM2G_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, GFDL-ESM2M_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2M_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, GFDL-ESM2M_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, GISS-E2-H_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-H_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2099.nc, GISS-E2-H_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, GISS-E2-R_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-R_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, GISS-E2-R_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, HadGEM2-AO_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-AO_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, HadGEM2-AO_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, HadGEM2-CC_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-CC_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2099.nc, HadGEM2-CC_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, HadGEM2-ES_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-ES_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2099.nc, HadGEM2-ES_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2099.nc, inmcm4_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, inmcm4_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, inmcm4_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, IPSL-CM5A-LR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-LR_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, IPSL-CM5A-LR_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, IPSL-CM5A-MR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-MR_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, IPSL-CM5A-MR_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, MIROC-ESM_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, MIROC-ESM_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, MIROC-ESM-CHEM_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM-CHEM_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, MIROC-ESM-CHEM_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, MIROC5_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC5_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2099.nc, MIROC5_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2099.nc, MPI-ESM-LR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-LR_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, MPI-ESM-LR_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, MPI-ESM-MR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-MR_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, MPI-ESM-MR_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, MRI-CGCM3_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MRI-CGCM3_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, MRI-CGCM3_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc, NorESM1-M_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, NorESM1-M_tmax95F_rcp45_2006_2100.nc, NorESM1-M_tmax95F_rcp85_2006_2100.nc,cb_2014_us_cbsa_5m.dbf.csv, cb_2014_us_cbsa_5m.shp_points_from_qgis.csv, CharlestonScMSA.inside.csv,R processing scripts contained in: nca4_processing_setup_run_sep17.tgz and tailored_plots_aug18_code_and_documetation.tgz,lmi_nca4_technical_documentation_v3.docx, README_tt_v2,summary_across_variables_columns.CharlestonScMSA.csv, summary_across_variables_columns.CharlestonScMSA.range.csv, summary_across_variables.CharlestonScMSA.csv,CharlestonScMSA_tmax95F_Rquantiles.ps
Output artifacts generated by this activity :
Urban_heat-proj-for-MSAs_v10.png; on TSU Resources site
Tools

Computing environment : Ubuntu linux and Mac OS-X

Software used : NCO 4.4.4,OpenLava 3.2,OpenMPI 1.10.7,Python 2.7.12,QGIS,R

Visualization software used : R,Adobe Illustrator CC2017

Data Bounding

The input object was time bounded starting from January 01, 1976 (00:00 AM)

The input object was time bounded ending at December 31, 2099 (00:00 AM)

The input object was bounded spatially:

This activity resulted in the following :

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