activity : nca4-increase-in-the-number-of-days-with-temperatures-near-95-f-panel-6-process

nca4-increase-in-the-number-of-days-with-temperatures-near-95-f-panel-6-process

Methodology:

Stage 1:
For each of the 32 CMIP5 models downscaled by LOCA (listed below), for each grid point, the annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than a specified threshold were determined for each year in the historical period (1950-2005). Thresholds are as follows: 110F for Phoenix; 90F for Fort Collins, Dubuque, and Pittsburgh; 95F for Charleston, Sc.

CMIP5 models:
ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, bcc-csm1-1-m, CanESM2, CCSM4, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5, CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, EC EARTH, FGOALS-g2, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-p1, GISS-E2-R-p1, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES, inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR, IPSL-CM5A-MR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MPI-ESM-LR, MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M

Stage 2:
1. CMIP5 model grid points within each Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) were defined.
For each city:
2. Time-ordered annual values of the average annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than the relevant threshold for these grid cells were extracted for each model for the historical period.
3. Averages over the period of 1976-2005 were calculated for each grid cell, for each model.
4. Ensemble averages for each grid cell were calculated from these single-model averages using a vector of model weights, using the weighting strategy of Sanderson et al. (2017):
Sanderson, B. M., Wehner, M., and Knutti, R.: Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessments, Geosci. Model Dev., 10, 2379-2395, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017, 2017.
5. A spatial average of these values across all grid cells in the specified MSA were calculated.
See, "lmi_nca4_technical_documentation_v3.docx" for a more detailed methodology.

For each city, the weighted multi-model mean average number of days exceeding the relevant threshold for 1976-2005 was listed, rounded to 1 decimal place.

Methodology Contact: Stage 1: Kenneth E. Kunkel, North Carolina State University; Stage 2: Terence Thompson, LMI

Processes

How the source was modified: The average annual number of days with a maximum temperature greater than the specified thresholds were determined from the LOCA data for each region. A weighted multi-model mean and the range of model values were calculated.

The duration of this activity was 350 hours.

Interim artifacts generated by this activity :
Multiset.py, createJobList.py, loca_proc.py, loca/functions.py, loca/GridChunks.py, loca/output.py, loca/TimeUtils.py,renameHybrid.bash, runJobList.bash, runListTask.bash,joblistConfig.json, loca_config.json,ACCESS1-0_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, ACCESS1-3_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1-m_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CanESM2_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CCSM4_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-BGC_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-CAM5_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CMS_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CM_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CNRM-CM5_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, EC-EARTH_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, FGOALS-g2_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-CM3_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2G_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2M_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-H_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-R_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-AO_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-CC_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-ES_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, inmcm4_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-LR_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-MR_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC5_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM-CHEM_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-LR_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-MR_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MRI-CGCM3_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, NorESM1-M_tmax90F_historical_1950_2005.nc, ACCESS1-0_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, ACCESS1-3_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1-m_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CanESM2_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CCSM4_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-BGC_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-CAM5_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CMS_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CM_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CNRM-CM5_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, EC-EARTH_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, FGOALS-g2_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-CM3_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2G_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2M_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-H_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-R_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-AO_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-CC_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-ES_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, inmcm4_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-LR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-MR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC5_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM-CHEM_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-LR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-MR_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MRI-CGCM3_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, NorESM1-M_tmax95F_historical_1950_2005.nc, ACCESS1-0_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, ACCESS1-3_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1-m_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, bcc-csm1-1_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CanESM2_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CCSM4_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-BGC_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CESM1-CAM5_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CMS_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CMCC-CM_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CNRM-CM5_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, EC-EARTH_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, FGOALS-g2_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-CM3_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2G_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GFDL-ESM2M_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-H_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, GISS-E2-R_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-AO_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-CC_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, HadGEM2-ES_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, inmcm4_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-LR_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, IPSL-CM5A-MR_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC5_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM-CHEM_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MIROC-ESM_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-LR_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MPI-ESM-MR_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, MRI-CGCM3_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc, NorESM1-M_tmax110F_historical_1950_2005.nc,cb_2014_us_cbsa_5m.dbf.csv, cb_2014_us_cbsa_5m.shp_points_from_qgis.csv, PhoenixMSA.inside.csv, FortCollinsMSA.inside.csv, DubuqueMSA.inside.csv, PittsburghMSA.inside.csv, CharlestonScMSA.inside.csv,R processing scripts contained in: nca4_processing_setup_run_sep17.tgz,lmi_nca4_technical_documentation_v3.docx,summary_across_variables.PhoenixMSA.csv, summary_across_variables.FortCollinsMSA.csv, summary_across_variables.DubuqueMSA.csv, summary_across_variables.PittsburghMSA.csv, summary_across_variables.CharlestonScMSA.csv
Output artifacts generated by this activity :
Urban_heat-proj-for-MSAs_v10.png; on TSU Resources site
Tools

Computing environment : Ubuntu linux and Mac OS-X

Software used : NCO 4.4.4,OpenLava 3.2,OpenMPI 1.10.7,Python 2.7.12,QGIS,R

Visualization software used : Adobe Illustrator CC2017

Data Bounding

The input object was time bounded starting from January 01, 1976 (00:00 AM)

The input object was time bounded ending at December 31, 2005 (00:00 AM)

The input object was bounded spatially:

This activity resulted in the following :

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