noaa-led-state-summaries-2017-projected-change-in-annual-precipitation-ri-process

Methodology:

1. For each model at each grid point, the mean annual precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario was calculated.
2. For each model, these data were re-gridded to a common grid.
3. For each model at each grid point, the mean annual precipitation under the RCP8.5 scenario was calculated for two periods: 1971-2000 and 2041-2070.
4. At each grid point, the difference in projected annual precipitation was calculated for 2041-2070 minus 1971-2000.
5. At each grid point, the mean spring precipitation difference was computed by averaging the following models:
BCC-CSM1.1, CCSM4, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0, FIO-ESM, GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-A0, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5B-LR, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC5, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MRI-CGCM3.
6. Data were plotted for grid points in the contiguous United States with model agreement indicated as follows:
Category 1: If less than 50% of the models indicate a statistically significant change then the multi-model mean is shown in color;
Category 2: If more than 50% of the models indicate a statistically significant change but less than 67% of the significant models agree on the sign of the change, then the grid points are masked out;
Category 3: If more than 50% of the models indicate a statistically significant change and more than 67% of the significant models agree on the sign of the change, then the multimodel mean is shown in color with hatching.

Multi-model mean CMIP5 (RCP8.5 scenario) annual precipitation projections were plotted for the contiguous United States, for 2041-2070 relative to 1971-2000.

Methodology Contact: Liqiang Sun, North Carolina State University

Processes

The duration of this activity was 9 hours and 30 minutes.

Interim artifacts generated by this activity :

rcp85-pcp-mam-ave.txt,CMIP_SeasonalComparison_Precip_2041_2070_US_V5.jpg,CMIP_Fig32A_v4.png,Figure32a_CMIP_Seasonal_Precip_2041_2070_CONUS.mpk

Output artifacts generated by this activity :

CICS computer cluster /snfs4/assessment/state summaries

Tools

Computing environment : Linux (CentOS release 6.4)

Software used : Fortran 95,f95 compiler,GrADS,ArcGIS

Visualization software used : ArcGIS

Data Bounding

The input object was time bounded starting from January 01, 1971 (00:00 AM)

The input object was time bounded ending at December 31, 2070 (00:00 AM)

The input object was bounded spatially:

This activity resulted in the following :

• figure 39.5: Projected Change in Annual Precipitation was derived from dataset World Climate Research Program's (WCRP's) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) multi-model ensemble