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## activity : pa_observed-nca3-cmip5-r1-process

## pa_observed-nca3-cmip5-r1-process

- The 5-95th percentile range of annual temperature anomalies (relative to 1901-1960) were plotted for the historical period (1901-2005) and both the RCP4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios (2006-2100).

- The statewide annual temperature was computed for each year for each model listed below, for the historical and future (RCP4.5 and 8.5) scenario model runs. To do this, the annual temperature data were interpolated from model native grids onto 5 km x 5 km grids, and then statewide annual temperature was computed by averaging over the grid points for that state. - A statewide time series of annual temperature anomalies was computed for each model by subtracting the 1901-1960 average from the annual temperatures, for each scenario. - The multi-model mean statewide annual temperature anomaly was computed for each year, for each scenario. - The multi-model statewide standard deviation of annual temperature anomalies was computed for each year, for each scenario. - The statewide 5-95th percentile range (1.64* std. dev) of annual temperature anomalies was computed for each year, for each scenario. Historical Run (for the period of 1901-2005) Number of models: 59, number of ensembles: 171 ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3 (2 ensembles), bcc-csm1-1 (3 ensembles), bcc-csm1-1-m (3 ensembles), BNU-ESM, CanESM2 (5 ensembles), CCSM4 (6 ensembles), CMCC-CM, CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5 (3 ensembles), CESM1-FASTCHEM (3 ensembles), CESM1-WACCM, CMCC-CESM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5 (10 ensembles), CNRM-CM5-2, CNRM-CM5 (10 ensembles), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (10 ensembles), EC-EARTH (5 ensembles), FGOALS-g2 (5 ensembles), FGOALS-s2 (2 ensembles), FIO-ESM (3 ensembles), GFDL-CM2p1 (10 ensembles), GFDL-CM3 (5 ensembles), GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-CC, GISS-E2-H-p1 (5 ensembles), GISS-E2-H-p2 (5 ensembles), GISS-E2-H-p3 (5 ensembles), GISS-E2-R-CC, GISS-E2-R-p1 (6 ensembles), GISS-E2-R-p2 (6 ensembles), GISS-E2-R-p3 (6 ensembles), GISS-E2-R-121, GISS-E2-R-122, GISS-E2-R-124, GISS-E2-R-125, GISS-E2-R-126, GISS-E2-R-127, GISS-E2-R-128, HadCM3 (10 ensembles), HadGEM2-A0, HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES (5 ensembles), Inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR (6 ensembles), IPSL-CM5A-MR (3 ensembles), IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5 (5 ensembles), MIROC-ESM (3 ensembles), MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-LR (3 ensembles), MPI-ESM-MR (3 ensembles), MPI-ESM-P (2 ensembles), MRI-CGCM3 (5 ensembles), MRI-ESM1, NorESM1-ME, NorESM1-M (3 ensembles) RCP4.5 (for the period of 2006-2100) Number of models: 45, number of ensembles: 119 ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1-m, bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM, CanCM4 (10 ensembles), CanESM2 (5 ensembles), CCSM4 (6 ensembles), CESM1-BGC, CESM1-CAM5 (3 ensembles), CESM1-WACCM (3 ensembles), CMCC-CM, CMCC-CMS, CNRM-CM5, CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (10 ensembles), EC-EARTH (9 ensembles), FGOALS-g2, FGOALS-s2 (2 ensembles), FIO-ESM (3 ensembles), GFDL-CM31, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-H-CC, GISS-E2-H-p1 (5 ensembles), GISS-E2-H-p2 (5 ensembles), GISS-E2-H-p3 (5 ensembles), GISS-E2-R-CC, GISS-E2-R-p1 (6 ensembles), GISS-E2-R-p2 (5 ensembles), GISS-E2-R-p3 (6 ensembles), HadGEM2-A0 (no data for 2100), HadGEM2-CC, HadGEM2-ES (4 ensembles), Inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR (4 ensembles), IPSL-CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5 (3 ensembles), MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-LR (3 ensembles), MPI-ESM-MR (3 ensembles), MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-ME, NorESM1-M RCP8.5 (for the period of 2006-2100) Number of models: 32, number of ensembles: 67 ACCESS1-0, ACCESS1-3, bcc-csm1-1, BNU-ESM, CanESM2 (5 ensembles), CCSM4 (6 ensembles), CMCC-CM, CNRM-CM5 (5 ensembles), CSIRO-Mk3-6-0 (10 ensembles), EC-EARTH, FGOALS-g2, FGOALS-s2 (2 ensembles), FIO-ESM (3 ensembles), GFDL-CM3, GFDL-ESM2G, GFDL-ESM2M, GISS-E2-R-p1, GISS-E2-R-p2, GISS-E2-R-p3, HadGEM2-A0 (no data for 2100), HadGEM2-CC (3 ensembles), HadGEM2-ES (4 ensembles), inmcm4, IPSL-CM5A-LR (4 ensembles), IPSL-CM5A-MR, IPSL-CM5B-LR, MIROC5 (3 ensembles), MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MPI-ESM-LR (2 ensembles), MPI-ESM-MR, MRI-CGCM3

CICS computer cluster /snfs4/assessment/state summaries, PA_temp_timeseries_smooth_v4.eps, pa_obs-proj-temp-change_v2.png, climdiv-tmpcst-v1.0.0-20150706.txt, range-t2m-ann-historical-common-1901-2005.txt, range-t2m-ann-rcp45-2006-2100.txt, range-t2m-ann-rcp85-2006-2100.txt, state_temp_timeseries.pro

Computing environment : Linux (Red Hat Enterprise Linux Server release 6.4), Mac OS X (darwin x86_64 m64)

Software used : GrADS Version 2.0 a9, IDL Version 8.2.3

Visualization software used : IDL Version 8.2.3, Adobe Illustrator CC 2015.2.0 Release

This activity resulted in the following :

**/activity/pa_observed-nca3-cmip5-r1-process**in HTML

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