People


Name ORCID Organizations Publications
Jorge A. Zavala 0000-0001-6265-0920 National Council for Scientific and Technical Research Pontifical Catholic University of Argentina University of Buenos Aires Chair of Biochemistry Leaf temperature of soybean grown under elevated CO2 increases Aphis glycines (Hemiptera: Aphididae) population growth
Miguel A. Zavala University of Alcalá Forest Ecology and Restoration Group Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: Concepts, processes and potential future impacts
Erika S. Zavaleta 0000-0002-1769-6492 University of California, Santa Cruz Department of Environmental Studies Harnessing nature to help people adapt to climate change Decision-Making Under Uncertainty: An Assessment of Adaptation Strategies and Scenario Development for Resource Managers. Publication number: CEC-500-2012-027 Boreal Fire Effects on Subsistence Resources in Alaska and Adjacent Canada Biodiversity management in the face of climate change: A review of 22 years of recommendations
Marco Zavatarelli 0000-0002-9148-9432 University of Bologna Department of Physics and Astronomy University of Bologna Ravenna Campus Inter-Departmental Research Centre for Environmental Science CIRSA Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean
David G. Zawada 0000-0003-4547-4878 U.S. Geological Survey St. Petersburg Coastal and Marine Science Center Divergence of seafloor elevation and sea level rise in coral reef ecosystems
Christian Zdanowicz 0000-0002-1045-5063 Geological Survey of Canada Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years
Charles H. Zeanah 0000-0002-7004-6819 Tulane University Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences Institute of Infant & Early Childhood Mental Health Reconsideration of harm's way: Onsets and comorbidity patterns of disorders in preschool children and their caregivers following Hurricane Katrina
Howard A. Zebker Stanford University School of Earth, Energy and Environmental Sciences Department of Geophysics Estimating the permanent loss of groundwater storage in the southern San Joaquin Valley, California
Emily Zechman Berglund North Carolina State University Department of Civil, Construction and Environmental Engineering Synthesis of public water supply use in the United States: Spatio-temporal patterns and socio-economic controls
Paul H. Zedler Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies University of Wisconsin-Madison Arboretum Large, high-intensity fire events in southern California shrublands: debunking the fine-grain age patch model
Richard E. Zeebe University of Hawai’i at Mānoa University of Hawai’i at Manoa Department of Oceanography University of Hawai'i at Mānoa School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology The Geological Record of Ocean Acidification Anthropogenic carbon release rate unprecedented during the past 66 million years Rapid and sustained surface ocean acidification during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum Making sense of palaeoclimate sensitivity
M. J. Zeeman Progress and challenges in using stable isotopes to trace plant carbon and water relations across scales
Stephan I. Zeeman University of New England (United States) Physical forcing and nutrient conditions associated with patterns of Chl a and phytoplankton productivity in the southeastern Bering Sea during summer
Harrison B. Zeff The University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Managing water utility financial risks through third-party index insurance contracts Cooperative drought adaptation: Integrating infrastructure development, conservation, and water transfers into adaptive policy pathways
Scott L. Zeger 0000-0001-8907-1603 Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health Department of Biostatistics Ozone and short-term mortality in 95 US urban communities, 1987-2000
Joseph A. Zehnder Creighton University Department of Atmospheric Sciences Contribution of Land Use Changes to Near-Surface Air Temperatures during Recent Summer Extreme Heat Events in the Phoenix Metropolitan Area
Rebekah Zehnder Texas A&M Forest Service Forest Resource Development and Sustainable Forestry Tree mortality from an exceptional drought spanning mesic to semiarid ecoregions
Louis D. Zeidberg University of California, Los Angeles Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Natural intrusions of hypoxic, low pH water into nearshore marine environments on the California coast
Sara L. Zeigler 0000-0002-5472-769X U.S. Geological Survey Woods Hole Coastal and Marine Science Center Smartphone-based distributed data collection enables rapid assessment of shorebird habitat suitability nca4 chapter 18 : Northeast Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection 18.14: Plover Case Study
Lauren Zeise California Office of Environmental Health Hazard Assessment Cumulative Impacts: Building a Scientific Foundation Implications of global climate change for the assessment and management of human health risks of chemicals in the natural environment
Judith T. Zelikoff New York University School of Medicine Department of Environmental Medicine New York University School of Medicine Atmospheric Brown Clouds: Regional Assessment Report with Focus on Asia Woodsmoke health effects: A review
Tamara J. Zelikova U.S. Geological Survey Southwest Biological Science Center Changes to dryland rainfall result in rapid moss mortality and altered soil fertility
Mark D. Zelinka 0000-0002-6570-5445 Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record
Martin Zell European Space Agency Expanded benefits for humanity from the International Space Station
Dirk Zeller Sea Around Us University of British Columbia Fisheries Centre Large-scale redistribution of maximum fisheries catch potential in the global ocean under climate change
Sandra Zellmer University of Nebraska-Lincoln College of Law Managed Relocation: Integrating the Scientific, Regulatory, and Ethical Challenges
Mark Zeman Surdex Corporation 21.11: Meramec River Flooding photo v2
Katie Zemlick Sandia National Laboratories University of New Mexico Department of Civil, Construction, and Environmental Engineering Water supply as a constraint on transmission expansion planning in the Western interconnection Geographic footprint of electricity use for water services in the western U.S
Michael Zemp 0000-0003-2391-7877 World Glacier Monitoring Service University of Zurich Department of Geography Historically unprecedented global glacier decline in the early 21st century Indicator: Arctic Glacier Mass Balance 1: Arctic Glacier Mass Balance 1: Arctic Glacier Mass Balance Global Glacier Change Bulletin No. 2 (2014-2015) 1: Arctic Glacier Mass Balance Indicator: Arctic Glacier Mass Balance Indicator: Arctic Glacier Mass Balance
Charles S. Zender 0000-0003-0129-8024 University of California, Irvine University of California, Irvine Department of Earth System Science Climate controls on valley fever incidence in Kern County, California Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone Springtime warming and reduced snow cover from carbonaceous particles Climate effect of black carbon aerosol in a Tibetan Plateau glacier Coccidioidomycosis dynamics in relation to climate in the southwestern United States
Argyro Zenetos Hellenic Centre for Marine Research Institute of Marine Biological Resources and Inland Waters Impacts of invasive alien marine species on ecosystem services and biodiversity: A pan-European review
Fanrong Zeng National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Multimodel assessment of regional surface temperature trends: CMIP3 and CMIP5 twentieth-century simulations Volcanic signals in oceans Extreme North America winter storm season of 2013/14: Roles of radiative forcing and the global warming hiatus [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”] On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity A link between the hiatus in global warming and North American drought The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere The central role of ocean dynamics in connecting the North Atlantic Oscillation to the extratropical component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Investigating the influence of anthropogenic forcing and natural variability on the 2014 Hawaiian hurricane season [in “Explaining Extreme Events of 2014 from a Climate Perspective”]
Guang Zeng National Centre for Atmospheric Science National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research University of Cambridge Department of Chemistry Centre for Atmospheric Science Climate/chemistry feedbacks and biogenic emissions Global air quality and climate Multimodel estimates of intercontinental source-receptor relationships for ozone pollution Impacts of climate change, ozone recovery, and increasing methane on surface ozone and the tropospheric oxidizing capacity Impacts of climate change on surface ozone and intercontinental ozone pollution: A multi-model study
Hongcheng Zeng Tulane University Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology Hurricane Katrina's carbon footprint on U.S. Gulf Coast forests
Ning Zeng 0000-0002-7489-7629 University of Maryland, College Park Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science University of Maryland, College Park Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center ESSIC Agricultural green revolution as a driver of increasing atmospheric CO2 seasonal amplitude Global carbon budget 2014 Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions Greening of the Earth and its drivers Carbon cycle uncertainty in the Alaskan Arctic
Xubin Zeng 0000-0001-7352-2764 Colorado State University Department of Atmospheric Science Influence on severe storm development of irrigated land
Zhenzhong Zeng 0000-0001-6851-2756 Peking University College of Urban and Environmental Sciences Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science Greening of the Earth and its drivers
Shannon N. Zenk University of Illinois at Chicago Department of Health Systems Science Healthy food access for urban food desert residents: examination of the food environment, food purchasing practices, diet and BMI Distance to store, food prices, and obesity in urban food deserts
Melanie Zeppel Macquarie University Department of Biological Sciences Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate
John I. Zerbe U.S. Forest Service Forest Products Laboratory Thermal energy, electricity, and transportation fuels from wood
Alexandre N. Zerbini 0000-0002-9776-6605 Cascadia Research Collective Comparison of warm and cold years on the southeastern Bering Sea shelf and some implications for the ecosystem
Sarah Zerbonne ICF U.S. Global Change Research Program USGCRP nca4 chapter 13 : Air Quality nca4 chapter 28 : Reducing Risks through Adaptation Actions nca4 chapter 14 : Human Health
Chris E. Zervas National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Ocean Service Modelling sea level rise impacts on storm surges along US coasts Sea Level Variations of the United States 1854–1999, NOAA Technical Report NOS CO-OPS 36 Sea Level Rise and Nuisance Flood Frequency Changes Around the United States Cool-season sea level anomalies and storm surges along the U.S. East Coast: Climatology and comparison with the 2009/10 El Niño
Chris Zganjar The Nature Conservancy Natural climate solutions
Haibo Zhai 0000-0001-8585-9559 Carnegie Mellon University Department of Engineering and Public Policy Water Use at Pulverized Coal Power Plants with Postcombustion Carbon Capture and Storage Consumptive water use from electricity generation in the Southwest under alternative climate, technology, and policy futures
P. Zhai Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation
Weidong Zhai Xiamen University State Key Laboratory of Marine Environmental Science Acidification of subsurface coastal waters enhanced by eutrophication
Yunkai Zhai Engineering Laboratory of Henan Province for Internet Medical E-commerce and Active Health Services The First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University National Engineering Laboratory for Internet Medical Systems and Applications Public health co-benefits of greenhouse gas emissions reduction: A systematic review
Liyang Zhan Key Laboratory of Global Change and Marine-Atmospheric Chemistry Increase in acidifying water in the western Arctic Ocean
Shengan Zhan 0000-0002-9303-1249 University of California, Los Angeles Department of Geography How much groundwater did California's Central Valley lose during the 2012–2016 drought?
Bo Zhang Sun Yat-sen University Department of Preventive Medicine The association between fine particulate matter exposure during pregnancy and preterm birth: A meta-analysis
Bowen Zhang Auburn University International Center for Climate and Global Change Research Global patterns and controls of soil organic carbon dynamics as simulated by multiple terrestrial biosphere models: Current status and future directions
Chunxi Zhang 0000-0001-5102-4713 International Pacific Research Center University of Hawai'i at Mānoa Department of Atmospheric Sciences Dynamical downscaling of the climate for the Hawaiian Islands. Part II: Projection for the late twenty-first century
Dan Zhang Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research Graduate School of the Chinese Academy of Sciences University of Hamburg Meteorological Institute Volcanoes and ENSO in millennium simulations: Global impacts and regional reconstructions in East Asia
Dongxiao Zhang 0000-0003-4720-7503 Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Oceans JISAO National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations Influence of African dust on ocean-atmosphere variability in the tropical Atlantic
Fangmin Zhang Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Agricultural Meteorology Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology College of Applied Meteorology University of Toronto Department of Geography and Planning Attributing carbon changes in conterminous U.S. forests to disturbance and non-disturbance factors from 1901 to 2010
Feng Zhang Georgia Institute of Technology Georgia Water Resources Institute Climate Variability and Change Assessment for the ACF River Basin, Southeast US. Georgia Water Resources Institute (GWRI) Technical Report sponsored by NOAA, USGS, and Georgia EPD
Fuqing Zhang 0000-0003-4860-9985 Texas A&M University College Station Extreme rainfall in Texas: Patterns and predictability
Guang J. Zhang Scripps Institution of Oceanography A decomposition of feedback contributions to polar warming amplification
Guo Zhang China Meteorological Administration Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences National Center for Atmospheric Research Climate change impacts on the water balance of the Colorado Headwaters: High-resolution regional climate model simulations
Guodong Zhang The University of Georgia College of Agricultural and Environmental Sciences Center for Food Safety U.S. Food and Drug Administration Center for Food Safety and Applied Nutrition Heat and drought stress during growth of lettuce ( Lactuca sativa L.) does not promote internalization of Escherichia coli O157: H7
Guoqing Zhang 0000-0003-2090-2813 Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Excellence in Tibetan Plateau Earth Sciences Rapid and highly variable warming of lake surface waters around the globe
Haiying Zhang Beijing Normal University State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science Finer resolution observation and monitoring of global land cover: first mapping results with Landsat TM and ETM+ data
Han Zhang Chinese Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modelling Finer resolution observation and monitoring of global land cover: first mapping results with Landsat TM and ETM+ data
Huai-Min Zhang National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Centers for Environmental Information NCEI National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Climatic Data Center Why Did Large Differences Arise in the Sea Surface Temperature Datasets across the Tropical Pacific during 2012? Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature Version 4 (ERSST.v4). Part I: Upgrades and intercomparisons Possible Artifacts of Data Biases in the Recent Global Surface Warming Hiatus
Jan Zhang University of Saskatchewan Department of Biology Long-term patterns of dissolved organic carbon in lakes across eastern Canada: Evidence of a pronounced climate effect
Jiahua Zhang Chinese Academy of Sciences Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth Sunshine dimming and brightening in Chinese cities (1955-2011) was driven by air pollution rather than clouds
Jia-Zhong Zhang 0000-0002-1138-2556 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory Changes in Ocean Heat, Carbon Content, and Ventilation: A Review of the First Decade of GO-SHIP Global Repeat Hydrography
Jing Zhang State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research Eutrophication-driven deoxygenation in the coastal ocean Evidence for greater oxygen decline rates in the coastal ocean than in the open ocean Dynamics and distribution of natural and human-caused hypoxia
Jinlun Zhang University of Washington Applied Physics Laboratory Polar Science Center Uncertainty in modeled Arctic sea ice volume The thinning of Arctic sea ice, 1988–2003: Have we passed a tipping point? CryoSat-2 estimates of Arctic sea ice thickness and volume
J. (Jing) Zhang North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University Department of Energy and Environmental Systems North Carolina Agricultural and Technical State University Department of Physics Modeling the evolution of the Juneau Icefield between 1971 and 2100 using the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM)
Junhua Zhang Yellow River Institute of Hydraulic Research Sustainable sediment management in reservoirs and regulated rivers: Experiences from five continents
Kai Zhang University of Michigan Department of Environmental Health Sciences University of Michigan Department of Epidemiology The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Department of Epidemiology, Human Genetics, and Environmental Sciences The University of Texas Health Science Center at Houston Southwest Center for Occupational and Environmental Health Comparing exposure metrics for classifying ‘dangerous heat’ in heat wave and health warning systems Spatiotemporal analysis of heat and heat wave effects on elderly mortality in Texas, 2006–2011 Impact of the 2011 heat wave on mortality and emergency department visits in Houston, Texas
Ke Zhang 0000-0001-5288-9372 Harvard University Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology University of Montana Flathead Lake Biological Station University of Montana Numerical Terradynamic Simulation Group Satellite detection of increasing Northern Hemisphere non-frozen seasons from 1979 to 2008: Implications for regional vegetation growth Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations Changing freeze-thaw seasons in northern high latitudes and associated influences on evapotranspiration Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply
Keqi Zhang Florida International University Department of Earth and Environment Florida International University International Hurricane Research Center The role of mangroves in attenuating storm surges Barrier Island Population along the U.S. Atlantic and Gulf Coasts
L. Zhang California Department of Public Health Environmental Health Investigations Branch Site Assessment Section The relationship of respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions to the southern California wildfires of 2003
Lefei Zhang Purdue University Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering Evaluation of constraints to water quality improvements in the Western Lake Erie Basin
Lei Zhang University of Maryland, College Park Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering The analysis of transit-oriented development (TOD) in Washington, D.C. and Baltimore metropolitan areas
Lei Zhang 0000-0003-2796-6043 University of Washington Bothell School of Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Meteorological anomalies lead to elevated O3 in the western U.S. in June 2015
Lening Zhang National Jewish Medical and Research Center Department of Medicine University of Colorado Health Sciences Center Department of Preventive Medicine and Biometrics Wildfire smoke and respiratory symptoms in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
Lin Zhang 0000-0003-2383-8431 Harvard University John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences Peking University Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Laboratory for Climate and Ocean-Atmosphere Sciences Sources contributing to background surface ozone in the US Intermountain West
Liping Zhang Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere A global perspective on CMIP5 climate model biases The central role of ocean dynamics in connecting the North Atlantic Oscillation to the extratropical component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Lixia Zhang Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Global meteorological drought: A synthesis of current understanding with a focus on SST drivers of precipitation deficits
L. (Lei) Zhang Mississippi Department of Health Office of Health Data and Research Occupational heat-related illness emergency department visits and inpatient hospitalizations in the southeast region, 2007–2011
Lu Zhang Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation Land and Water Potential climate change effects on groundwater recharge in the High Plains Aquifer, USA
Ming Zhang The University of Texas at Austin Can transit-oriented development reduce peak-hour congestion?
Minghua Zhang 0000-0003-1378-4652 University of California, Davis Department of Land, Air, and Water Resources Climatic Changes Lead to Declining Winter Chill for Fruit and Nut Trees in California during 1950–2099 Climate change sensitivity assessment of streamflow and agricultural pollutant transport in California's Central Valley using Latin hypercube sampling
Minghua H. Zhang State University of New York at Stony Brook State University of New York at Stony Brook School of Marine and Atmospheric Sciences SAP 3.1. Climate Models: An Assessment of Strengths and Limitations Historical evaluation and future prediction of eastern North American and western Atlantic extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 models during the cool season
Mingliang Zhang University of Arkansas for Medical Sciences Center for Rural Mental Healthcare Research Treatment of Depression in Rural Arkansas: Policy Implications for Improving Care
Ni Zhang Evidence for interannual variability of the carbon cycle from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory Global Air Sampling Network
Ping Zhang Earth Resource Technology Inc NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Biospheric Science Laboratory NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Hydrospheric, Biospheric and Geophysics Division Science Systems and Applications, Inc. University of Maryland, College Park Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center ESSIC Remote sensing of the urban heat island effect across biomes in the continental USA Evapotranspiration trends over the eastern United States during the 20th century Impact of urbanization on US surface climate
Qian Zhang Beijing Normal University College of Global Change and Earth System Science Changes in soil organic carbon storage predicted by Earth system models during the 21st century
Rong Zhang 0000-0002-8493-6556 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Enhanced warming of the Northwest Atlantic Ocean under climate change A new method for attributing climate variations over the Atlantic Hurricane Basin's main development region Fram Strait sea ice export variability and September Arctic sea ice extent over the last 80 years Large fluctuations of dissolved oxygen in the Indian and Pacific oceans during Dansgaard–Oeschger oscillations caused by variations of North Atlantic Deep Water subduction The North Atlantic Oscillation as a driver of rapid climate change in the Northern Hemisphere The central role of ocean dynamics in connecting the North Atlantic Oscillation to the extratropical component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Comment on “The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation” Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability?
Shaoqing Zhang 0000-0003-4085-9023 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory On the seasonal forecasting of regional tropical cyclone activity Reduced interdecadal variability of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under global warming An extreme event of sea-level rise along the Northeast coast of North America in 2009–2010
Tao Zhang Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Earth System Research Laboratory Earth System Research Laboratory Physical Sciences Division University of Colorado Boulder The making of an extreme event: Putting the pieces together North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability Forced atmospheric teleconnections during 1979–2014 Anatomy of an Extreme Event Was there a basis for anticipating the 2010 Russian heat wave?
Tingjun Zhang 0000-0003-3560-6187 Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences CIRES Analysis of the Arctic system for freshwater cycle intensification: Observations and expectations
Wei Zhang International Food Policy Research Institute Environment and Production Technology Division Opportunities for improved promotion of ecosystem services in agriculture under the Water-Energy-Food Nexus
Weifeng G. Zhang 0000-0002-2819-1780 Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering Department The role of atmospheric forcing versus ocean advection during the extreme warming of the Northeast U.S. continental shelf in 2012
Wu Zhang Lanzhou University College of Atmospheric Sciences A study of dust radiative feedback on dust cycle and meteorology over East Asia by a coupled regional climate-chemistry-aerosol model
Xiangdong Zhang 0000-0001-5893-2888 University of Alaska Fairbanks Department of Atmospheric Sciences University of Alaska Fairbanks International Arctic Research Center The atmospheric role in the Arctic water cycle: A review on processes, past and future changes, and their impacts Intrinsic versus forced variation in coupled climate model simulations over the Arctic during the twentieth century