--- - attrs: Author: 'Oklahoma NSF EPSCoR,' Conference Name: 2016 Tribal College Conference Series on Climate Change Date: April 8 Publisher: Oklahoma National Science Foundation (NSF) Experimental Program to Stimulate Competitive Research (EPSCoR) Title: Native American Water and Food Security Research URL: http://www.okepscor.org/public-outreach/news/nsf-epscor-hold-tribal-college-conference-climate-change-research Year of Conference: 2016 _record_number: 26288 _uuid: 00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925 reftype: Conference Proceedings child_publication: /generic/6612a547-b67e-40f1-ac12-d933722f20fd href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925.yaml identifier: 00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925 uri: /reference/00636bfb-a814-4cf5-b21f-2634e8963925 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Shi, F\rYang, B\rMairesse, A\rvon Gunten, L\rLi, J\rBräuning, A\rYang, F\rXiao, X" DOI: 10.3354/cr01156 Date: 'April 24, 2013' Issue: 3 Journal: Climate Research Pages: 231-244 Title: Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction during the last millennium using multiple annual proxies URL: http://www.int-res.com/articles/cr2013/56/c056p231.pdf Volume: 56 Year: 2013 _chapter: '["Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 4265 _uuid: 0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.3354/cr01156 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5.yaml identifier: 0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5 uri: /reference/0064ddef-5870-4fa4-a09d-c7d97b539ec5 - attrs: Author: 'van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Edmonds, Jae; Kainuma, Mikiko; Riahi, Keywan; Thomson, Allison; Hibbard, Kathy; Hurtt, George C.; Kram, Tom; Krey, Volker; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Masui, Toshihiko; Meinshausen, Malte; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa; Smith, Steven J.; Rose, Steven K.' DOI: 10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z ISSN: "0165-0009\r1573-1480" Issue: 1-2 Journal: Climatic Change Pages: 5-31 Title: 'The Representative Concentration Pathways: an Overview' Volume: 109 Year: 2011 _record_number: 3729 _uuid: 006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0.yaml identifier: 006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0 uri: /reference/006bd6a7-3e9f-4996-aa7c-434627da73f0 - attrs: .publisher: 'John Wiley & Sons, Ltd' .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Davy, Richard; Esau, Igor; Chernokulsky, Alexander; Outten, Stephen; Zilitinkevich, Sergej' DOI: 10.1002/joc.4688 Journal: International Journal of Climatology Keywords: climate change; surface air temperature; climate feedback; energy-budget model Pages: 79-93 Title: Diurnal asymmetry to the observed global warming Volume: 37 Year: 2016 _record_number: 20525 _uuid: 006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/joc.4688 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e.yaml identifier: 006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e uri: /reference/006c2a6c-00df-4d13-b00c-99c4c5dc276e - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Dulvy, N.K.\rRogers, S.I.\rJennings, S.\rStelzenmüller, V.\rDye, S.R.\rSkjoldal, H.R." DOI: 10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01488.x ISSN: 1365-2664 Issue: 4 Journal: Journal of Applied Ecology Pages: 1029-1039 Title: 'Climate change and deepening of the North Sea fish assemblage: A biotic indicator of warming seas' Volume: 45 Year: 2008 _chapter: '["Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL","Ch. 8: Ecosystems FINAL"]' _record_number: 276 _uuid: 006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2008.01488.x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664.yaml identifier: 006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664 uri: /reference/006ce4db-d72c-400a-a409-c6a536e55664 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'OBJECTIVES: We described American Indian/Alaska Native (AI/AN) infant and pediatric death rates and leading causes of death. METHODS: We adjusted National Vital Statistics System mortality data for AI/AN racial misclassification by linkage with Indian Health Service (IHS) registration records. We determined average annual death rates and leading causes of death for 1999 to 2009 for AI/AN versus White infants and children. We limited the analysis to IHS Contract Health Service Delivery Area counties. RESULTS: The AI/AN infant death rate was 914 (rate ratio [RR] = 1.61; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.55, 1.67). Sudden infant death syndrome, unintentional injuries, and influenza or pneumonia were more common in AI/AN versus White infants. The overall AI/AN pediatric death rates were 69.6 for ages 1 to 4 years (RR = 2.56; 95% CI = 2.38, 2.75), 28.9 for ages 5 to 9 years (RR = 2.12; 95% CI = 1.92, 2.34), 37.3 for ages 10 to 14 years (RR = 2.22; 95% CI = 2.04, 2.40), and 158.4 for ages 15 to 19 years (RR = 2.71; 95% CI = 2.60, 2.82). Unintentional injuries and suicide occurred at higher rates among AI/AN youths versus White youths. CONCLUSIONS: Death rates for AI/AN infants and children were higher than for Whites, with regional disparities. Several leading causes of death in the AI/AN pediatric population are potentially preventable.' Author: 'Wong, C. A.; Gachupin, F. C.; Holman, R. C.; MacDorman, M. F.; Cheek, J. E.; Holve, S.; Singleton, R. J.' Author Address: "At the time of the study, Charlene A. Wong was with the Department of Pediatrics, Seattle Children's Hospital/University of Washington, Seattle. Francine C. Gachupin is with the Department of Family and Community Medicine, College of Medicine, University of Arizona, Tucson. Robert C. Holman is with the Division of High-Consequence Pathogens and Pathology, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Atlanta, GA. Marian F. MacDorman is with the Reproductive Statistics Branch, Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics, Hyattsville, MD. James E. Cheek is with the Public Health Program, Department of Family and Community Medicine, School of Medicine, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque. Steve Holve is with Indian Health Service (IHS), Tuba City Regional Healthcare Corporation, Tuba City, AZ. Rosalyn J. Singleton is with the Arctic Investigations Program, Division of Preparedness and Emerging Infections, National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases, CDC, Anchorage, AK." DOI: 10.2105/ajph.2013.301598 EPub Date: 24 April 2014 ISSN: 1541-0048 Issue: S3 Journal: American Journal of Public Health Keywords: 'Adolescent; Alaska/epidemiology; Cause of Death; Child; Child Mortality/*ethnology; Child, Preschool; Female; Humans; Indians, North American/*statistics & numerical data; Infant; Infant Mortality/*ethnology; Infant, Newborn; Inuits/*statistics & numerical data; Male; United States/epidemiology' Language: eng Notes: '1541-0048 Wong, Charlene A Gachupin, Francine C Holman, Robert C MacDorman, Marian F Cheek, James E Holve, Steve Singleton, Rosalyn J Journal Article United States Am J Public Health. 2014 Jun;104 Suppl 3:S320-8. doi: 10.2105/AJPH.2013.301598. Epub 2014 Apr 22.' PMCID: PMC4035880 Pages: S320-S328 Title: 'American Indian and Alaska Native infant and pediatric mortality, United States, 1999–2009' Volume: 104 Year: 2014 _record_number: 19087 _uuid: 0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.2105/ajph.2013.301598 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a.yaml identifier: 0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a uri: /reference/0073c503-064a-44ef-824a-3849a26cf80a - attrs: Author: EPA Title: 'Climate Change Indicators in the United States, 2016. Fourth Edition. Technical Documentation Overview' URL: https://www.epa.gov/sites/production/files/2016-08/documents/technical-documentation-overview-2016.pdf Year: 2016 _record_number: 25130 _uuid: 00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d reftype: Government Document child_publication: /report/climate-change-indicators-united-states-2016-4th-edition-technical-documentation-overview href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d.yaml identifier: 00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d uri: /reference/00764520-3a1e-4e17-a7fa-eff4047bc54d - attrs: Author: 'Laidre, Kristin L.; Stern, Harry; Kovacs, Kit M.; Lowry, Lloyd; Moore, Sue E.; Regehr, Eric V.; Ferguson, Steven H.; Wiig, Øystein; Boveng, Peter; Angliss, Robyn P.; Born, Erik W.; Litovka, Dennis; Quakenbush, Lori; Lydersen, Christian; Vongraven, Dag; Ugarte, Fernando' DOI: 10.1111/cobi.12474 ISSN: 1523-1739 Issue: 3 Journal: Conservation Biology Keywords: circumpolar assessment; climate change; management; subsistence harvest; cambio climático; caza para la subsistencia; evaluación circumpolar; manejo Pages: 724-737 Title: 'Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century' Volume: 29 Year: 2015 _record_number: 24873 _uuid: 0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/cobi.12474 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c.yaml identifier: 0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c uri: /reference/0077ea5b-e28a-4ecb-83e8-1250e7f8837c - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: "Peterson, D.L.\rMillar, C.I.\rJoyce, L.A.\rFurniss, M.J.\rHalofsky, J.E.\rNeilson, R.P.\rMorelli, T.L." Date: November 2011 Institution: 'U.S. Department of Agriculture, U.S. Forest Service' Pages: 118 Place Published: Pacific Northwest Research Station Title: 'Responding to climate change on national forests: A guidebook for developing adaptation options. General Technical Report PNW-GTR-855' URL: http://www.fs.fed.us/pnw/pubs/pnw_gtr855.pdf Year: 2011 _chapter: '["Ch. 8: Ecosystems FINAL","Ch. 21: Northwest FINAL"]' _record_number: 2475 _uuid: 007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/usfs-pnw-gtr-855 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884.yaml identifier: 007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884 uri: /reference/007a7014-723e-4ceb-a395-5c986b1bf884 - attrs: Author: 'Gabler, Christopher A.; Osland, Michael J.; Grace, James B.; Stagg, Camille L.; Day, Richard H.; Hartley, Stephen B.; Enwright, Nicholas M.; From, Andrew S.; McCoy, Meagan L.; McLeod, Jennie L.' DOI: 10.1038/nclimate3203 ISSN: "1758-678X\r1758-6798" Issue: 2 Journal: Nature Climate Change Pages: 142-147 Title: Macroclimatic Change Expected to Transform Coastal Wetland Ecosystems This Century URL: http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v7/n2/pdf/nclimate3203.pdf Volume: 7 Year: 2017 _record_number: 2805 _uuid: 007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nclimate3203 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6.yaml identifier: 007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6 uri: /reference/007be42a-63d2-4554-b7a4-4da82733f1f6 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'The resurgence in cases of neurologic disease caused by West Nile virus (WNV) in the United States in 2012 came as a surprise to the general public and to many non-arbovirus researchers. Following the introduction of WNV into the US in 1999, the number of human infections rose dramatically, peaking in 2002-03. However, cases declined from 2008-11, and it was unclear if the virus would continue to have a low-level endemic transmission pattern with occasional outbreaks, like the related flavivirus, Saint Louis encephalitis virus, or a more active pattern with annual outbreaks, including occasional years with large epidemics, like Japanese encephalitis virus. The large epidemic in 2012 suggests that the United States can expect periodic outbreaks of West Nile fever and neurologic disease in the coming years. In this paper, we consider the causes of the upsurge in WNV infections during the past year and their implications for future research and disease control measures.' Author: 'Beasley, D. W.; Barrett, A. D.; Tesh, R. B.' DOI: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2013.04.015 Date: Jul ISSN: 0166-3542 Issue: 1 Journal: Antiviral Research Keywords: 'Communicable Disease Control/methods/organization & administration; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology/virology; Humans; United States/epidemiology; West Nile Fever/*epidemiology; West Nile virus/*isolation & purification' Notes: 'Beasley, David W C Barrett, Alan D T Tesh, Robert B eng Netherlands 2013/04/30 06:00 Antiviral Res. 2013 Jul;99(1):1-5. doi: 10.1016/j.antiviral.2013.04.015. Epub 2013 Apr 26.' Pages: 1-5 Title: 'Resurgence of West Nile neurologic disease in the United States in 2012: What happened? What needs to be done?' Volume: 99 Year: 2013 _record_number: 17989 _uuid: 007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.antiviral.2013.04.015 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66.yaml identifier: 007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66 uri: /reference/007d3c7d-9252-4567-b574-39c159298e66 - attrs: .publisher: Copernicus Publications .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Hearty, P.; Ruedy, R.; Kelley, M.; Masson-Delmotte, V.; Russell, G.; Tselioudis, G.; Cao, J.; Rignot, E.; Velicogna, I.; Tormey, B.; Donovan, B.; Kandiano, E.; von Schuckmann, K.; Kharecha, P.; Legrande, A. N.; Bauer, M.; Lo, K. W.' DOI: 10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 Issue: 6 Journal: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Pages: 3761-3812 Title: 'Ice melt, sea level rise and superstorms: Evidence from paleoclimate data, climate modeling, and modern observations that 2°C global warming could be dangerous' Volume: 16 Year: 2016 _record_number: 20084 _uuid: 007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5194/acp-16-3761-2016 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0.yaml identifier: 007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0 uri: /reference/007f2357-8eee-432d-adfa-5f3413f82cb0 - attrs: Abstract: 'Ecosystems are self-regulating systems that provide societies with food, water, timber, and other resources. As demands for resources increase, management decisions are replacing self-regulating properties. Counter to previous technical approaches that applied simple formulas to estimate sustainable yields of single species, current research recognizes the inherent complexity of ecosystems and the inability to foresee all consequences of interventions across different spatial, temporal, and administrative scales. Ecosystem management is thus more realistically seen as a "wicked problem" that has no clear-cut solution. Approaches for addressing such problems include multisector decision-making, institutions that enable management to span across administrative boundaries, adaptive management, markets that incorporate natural capital, and collaborative processes to engage diverse stakeholders and address inequalities. Ecosystem management must avoid two traps: falsely assuming a tame solution and inaction from overwhelming complexity. An incremental approach can help to avoid these traps.' Accession Number: 28428392 Author: 'DeFries, R.; Nagendra, H.' Author Address: "Department of Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA. rd2402@columbia.edu.\rSchool of Development, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, India." DOI: 10.1126/science.aal1950 Date: Apr 21 ISSN: "1095-9203 (Electronic)\r0036-8075 (Linking)" Issue: 6335 Journal: Science Keywords: Decision Making; Ecological Parameter Monitoring/*methods; *Ecosystem; Humans; Natural Resources Notes: "DeFries, Ruth\rNagendra, Harini\reng\rReview\r2017/04/22 06:00\rScience. 2017 Apr 21;356(6335):265-270. doi: 10.1126/science.aal1950." Pages: 265-270 Title: Ecosystem management as a wicked problem Volume: 356 Year: 2017 _record_number: 2974 _uuid: 0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c reftype: Journal Article child_publication: ~ href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c.yaml identifier: 0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c uri: /reference/0087b9f1-8eec-4ce0-945f-a618cadef99c - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Sanderson, B.M.; Wehner, M.; Knutti, R.' DOI: 10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017 Journal: Geoscientific Model Development Pages: 2379-2395 Title: Skill and independence weighting for multi-model assessment Volume: 10 Year: 2017 _record_number: 20582 _uuid: 008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5194/gmd-10-2379-2017 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8.yaml identifier: 008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8 uri: /reference/008eb02f-ddb4-43a9-b61f-aad470a66dc8 - attrs: Author: 'Ngo, Nicole S.; Horton, Radley M.' DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2015.11.016 Date: 2016/01/01/ ISSN: 0013-9351 Journal: Environmental Research Keywords: Climate change; Fetal health; Urban sustainability Pages: 158-164 Title: 'Climate change and fetal health: The impacts of exposure to extreme temperatures in New York City' Volume: 144 Year: 2016 _record_number: 25317 _uuid: 00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1016/j.envres.2015.11.016 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1.yaml identifier: 00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1 uri: /reference/00935259-887c-4e73-a936-90759dd846e1 - attrs: .reference_type: 10 Author: 'Staudinger, Michelle D.; Morelli, Toni Lyn; Bryan, Alexander M.' Institution: Northeast Climate Science Center Pages: 201 Place Published: 'Amherst, MA' Series Title: DOI Northeast Climate Science Center Report Title: Integrating Climate Change into Northeast and Midwest State Wildlife Action Plans URL: http://necsc.umass.edu/biblio/integrating-climate-change-northeast-and-midwest-state-wildlife-action-plans Year: 2015 _record_number: 21920 _uuid: 0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03 reftype: Report child_publication: /report/integrating-climate-change-into-northeast-midwest-state-wildlife-action-plans href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03.yaml identifier: 0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03 uri: /reference/0095368f-c79d-47b5-89bd-856b38752d03 - attrs: Author: 'Son, SeungHyun; Wang, Menghua; Harding, Lawrence W.' DOI: 10.1016/j.rse.2014.01.018 ISSN: 00344257 Journal: Remote Sensing of Environment Pages: 109-119 Title: Satellite-measured Net Primary Production in the Chesapeake Bay URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0034425714000315 Volume: 144 Year: 2014 _record_number: 2936 _uuid: 00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: ~ href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8.yaml identifier: 00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8 uri: /reference/00962646-eeb1-4e40-a590-e1960bed77b8 - attrs: Author: 'Follett, R. F., ; S. Mooney, ; J. A. Morgan, ; K. Paustian, ; L. H. Allen Jr, ; S. Archibeque, ; S. J. Del Grosso, ; J. D. Derner, ; F. Dijkstra, ; A. J. Franzluebbers, ; L. Kurkalova, ; B. McCarl, ; S. Ogle, ; W. Parton, ; J. Petersen, ; G. P. Robertson, ; M. Schoeneberger, ; T. West, ; J. Williams' Title: 'Carbon Sequestration and Greenhouse Gas Fluxes in Agriculture: Challenges and Opportunities. Council On Agricultural Science and Technology, Issue Paper, 112 pp' Year: 2011 _record_number: 2090 _uuid: 009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a reftype: Journal Article child_publication: ~ href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a.yaml identifier: 009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a uri: /reference/009efed2-9425-4eab-b696-196335752f4a - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Hall, Timothy; Hereid, Kelly' DOI: 10.1002/2015GL063652 Issue: 9 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: hurricanes; statistical modeling; risk analysis; 3372 Tropical cyclones; 4313 Extreme events; 4318 Statistical analysis; 4333 Disaster risk analysis and assessment Pages: 3482-3485 Title: The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts Volume: 42 Year: 2015 _record_number: 19740 _uuid: 00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2015GL063652 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580.yaml identifier: 00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580 uri: /reference/00a39c91-e1f7-426e-83ff-8f3205c55580 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Das, Tapash; Pierce, David W.; Cayan, Daniel R.; Vano, Julie A.; Lettenmaier, Dennis P.' DOI: 10.1029/2011GL049660 Issue: 23 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: climate change; hydroclimatology; streamflow; western U.S.; 1630 Impacts of global change; 1631 Land/atmosphere interactions; 1637 Regional climate change; 1655 Water cycles; 1833 Hydroclimatology Pages: L23403 Title: The importance of warm season warming to western U.S. streamflow changes Volume: 38 Year: 2011 _record_number: 20917 _uuid: 00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1029/2011GL049660 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289.yaml identifier: 00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289 uri: /reference/00a636d2-91ee-41bf-a33f-a16dc49b3289 - attrs: Author: 'Cheaib, Alissar; Badeau, Vincent; Boe, Julien; Chuine, Isabelle; Delire, Christine; Dufrêne, Eric; François, Christophe; Gritti, Emmanuel S; Legay, Myriam; Pagé, Christian' DOI: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.x ISSN: 1461-0248 Issue: 6 Journal: Ecology Letters Pages: 533-544 Title: 'Climate change impacts on tree ranges: Model intercomparison facilitates understanding and quantification of uncertainty' Volume: 15 Year: 2012 _record_number: 22567 _uuid: 00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2012.01764.x href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff.yaml identifier: 00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff uri: /reference/00a8c280-09c0-4002-a8f5-53ef7b345fff - attrs: Author: 'Melton, Paula' ISSN: 1938-3274 Issue: 10 Journal: Environmental Building News Keywords: added by ERG Pages: 1-10 Title: Designing for the next century's weather Volume: 22 Year: 2013 _record_number: 22979 _uuid: 00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/designing-next-centurys-weather href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088.yaml identifier: 00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088 uri: /reference/00aa37c2-798b-4ad5-b52d-5cae5fe69088 - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: "The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) simulated by 10 models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for the historical (1850–2005) and future climate is examined. The historical simulations of the AMOC mean state are more closely matched to observations than those of phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). Similarly to CMIP3, all models predict a weakening of the AMOC in the twenty-first century, though the degree of weakening varies considerably among the models. Under the representative concentration pathway 4.5 (RCP4.5) scenario, the weakening by year 2100 is 5%–40% of the individual model's historical mean state; under RCP8.5, the weakening increases to 15%–60% over the same period. RCP4.5 leads to the stabilization of the AMOC in the second half of the twenty-first century and a slower (then weakening rate) but steady recovery thereafter, while RCP8.5 gives rise to a continuous weakening of the AMOC throughout the twenty-first century. In the CMIP5 historical simulations, all but one model exhibit a weak downward trend [ranging from −0.1 to −1.8 Sverdrup (Sv) century−1; 1 Sv ≡ 106 m3 s−1] over the twentieth century. Additionally, the multimodel ensemble–mean AMOC exhibits multidecadal variability with a ~60-yr periodicity and a peak-to-peak amplitude of ~1 Sv; all individual models project consistently onto this multidecadal mode. This multidecadal variability is significantly correlated with similar variations in the net surface shortwave radiative flux in the North Atlantic and with surface freshwater flux variations in the subpolar latitudes. Potential drivers for the twentieth-century multimodel AMOC variability, including external climate forcing and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the implication of these results on the North Atlantic SST variability are discussed." Author: Wei Cheng; John C. H. Chiang; Dongxiao Zhang DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00496.1 Issue: 18 Journal: Journal of Climate Keywords: 'Meridional overturning circulation,Climate models,Ensembles,Climate variability,Multidecadal variability,Trends' Pages: 7187-7197 Title: 'Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in CMIP5 models: RCP and historical simulations' Volume: 26 Year: 2013 _record_number: 20673 _uuid: 00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1175/jcli-d-12-00496.1 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07.yaml identifier: 00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07 uri: /reference/00ad92a7-e213-4a3f-b5b8-92cb1f129a07 - attrs: Abstract: "Questions of whether trophic cascades occur in Isle Royale National Park (IRNP) or Yellowstone National Park's northern range (NR) cannot lead to simple, precise, or definitive answers. Such answers are limited especially by multicausality in the NR and by complex temporal variation in IRNP. Spatial heterogeneity, contingency, and nonequilibrium dynamics also work against simple answers in IRNP and NR. The existence of a trophic cascade in IRNP and NR also depends greatly on how it is defined. For example, some conceive of trophic cascades as entailing essentially any indirect effect of predation. This may be fine, but the primary intellectual value of such a conception may be to assess an important view in community ecology that most species are connected to most other species in a food web through a network of complicated, albeit weak, indirect effects. These circumstances that work against simple answers likely apply to many ecosystems. Despite the challenges of assessing the existence of trophic cascades in IRNP and NR, such assessments result in considerable insights about a more fundamental question: What causes population abundance to fluctuate?" Author: 'Peterson, Rolf O.; John A. Vucetich; Joseph M. Bump; Douglas W. Smith' DOI: 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091634 Issue: 1 Journal: 'Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics' Keywords: 'moose,elk,wolf,predation,herbivory,ecosystem' Pages: 325-345 Title: 'Trophic cascades in a multicausal world: Isle Royale and Yellowstone' Volume: 45 Year: 2014 _record_number: 26423 _uuid: 00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-120213-091634 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f.yaml identifier: 00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f uri: /reference/00b08ed0-179f-46c3-8f82-123a2244366f - attrs: Abstract: 'Aim Many competing hypotheses seek to identify the mechanisms behind species richness gradients. Yet, the determinants of species turnover over broad scales are uncertain. We test whether environmental dissimilarity predicts biotic turnover spatially and temporally across an array of environmental variables and spatial scales using recently observed climate changes as a pseudo‐experimental opportunity. Location Canada. Methods We used an extensive database of observation records of 282 Canadian butterfly species collected between 1900 and 2010 to characterize spatial and temporal turnover based on Jaccard indices. We compare relationships between spatial turnover and differences in an array of relevant environmental conditions, including aspects of temperature, precipitation, elevation, primary productivity and land cover. Measurements were taken within 100‐, 200‐ and 400‐km grid cells, respectively. We tested the relative importance of each variable in predicting spatial turnover using bootstrap analysis. Finally, we tested for effects of temperature and precipitation change on temporal turnover, including distinctly accounting for turnover under individual species’ potential dispersal limitations. Results Temperature differences between areas correlate with spatial turnover in butterfly assemblages, independently of distance, sampling differences or the spatial resolution of the analysis. Increasing temperatures are positively related to biotic turnover within quadrats through time. Limitations on species dispersal may cause observed biotic turnover to be lower than expected given the magnitude of temperature changes through time. Main conclusions Temperature differences can account for spatial trends in biotic dissimilarity and turnover through time in areas where climate is changing. Butterfly communities are changing quickly in some areas, probably reflecting the dispersal capacities of individual species. However, turnover is lower through time than expected in many areas, suggesting that further work is needed to understand the factors that limit dispersal across broad regions. Our results illustrate the large‐scale effects of climate change on biodiversity in areas with strong environmental gradients.' Author: 'Lewthwaite, Jayme M. M.; Debinski, Diane M.; Kerr, Jeremy T.' DOI: 10.1111/geb.12553 Issue: 4 Journal: Global Ecology and Biogeography Pages: 459-471 Title: High community turnover and dispersal limitation relative to rapid climate change Volume: 26 Year: 2017 _record_number: 25710 _uuid: 00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1111/geb.12553 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd.yaml identifier: 00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd uri: /reference/00b388e8-5db4-4aa7-acbb-c1c8237aa4bd