reference : Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions

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/reference/063191fc-c500-4583-9c65-740c05f37302
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Societal risks increase as Earth warms, and increase further for emissions trajectories accepting relatively high levels of near-term emissions while assuming future negative emissions will compensate, even if they lead to identical warming as trajectories with reduced near-term emissions 1 . Accelerating carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions reductions, including as a substitute for negative emissions, hence reduces long-term risks but requires dramatic near-term societal transformations 2 . A major barrier to emissions reductions is the difficulty of reconciling immediate, localized costs with global, long-term benefits3,4. However, 2 °C trajectories not relying on negative emissions or 1.5 °C trajectories require elimination of most fossil-fuel-related emissions. This generally reduces co-emissions that cause ambient air pollution, resulting in near-term, localized health benefits. We therefore examine the human health benefits of increasing 21st-century CO2 reductions by 180 GtC, an amount that would shift a ‘standard’ 2 °C scenario to 1.5 °C or could achieve 2 °C without negative emissions. The decreased air pollution leads to 153 ± 43 million fewer premature deaths worldwide, with ~40% occurring during the next 40 years, and minimal climate disbenefits. More than a million premature deaths would be prevented in many metropolitan areas in Asia and Africa, and >200,000 in individual urban areas on every inhabited continent except Australia.
Author Shindell, Drew; Faluvegi, Greg; Seltzer, Karl; Shindell, Cary
DOI 10.1038/s41558-018-0108-y
Date 2018/04/01
ISSN 1758-6798
Issue 4
Journal Nature Climate Change
Pages 291-295
Title Quantified, localized health benefits of accelerated carbon dioxide emissions reductions
Volume 8
Year 2018
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 25204
_uuid 063191fc-c500-4583-9c65-740c05f37302