reference : The “pause” in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science

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/reference/06be584c-b7c6-4c08-8792-caf54bf51a43
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract There has been much recent published research about a putative “pause” or “hiatus” in global warming. We show that there are frequent fluctuations in the rate of warming around a longer-term warming trend, and that there is no evidence that identifies the recent period as unique or particularly unusual. In confirmation, we show that the notion of a pause in warming is considered to be misleading in a blind expert test. Nonetheless, the most recent fluctuation about the longer-term trend has been regarded by many as an explanatory challenge that climate science must resolve. This departs from long-standing practice, insofar as scientists have long recognized that the climate fluctuates, that linear increases in CO2 do not produce linear trends in global warming, and that 15-yr (or shorter) periods are not diagnostic of long-term trends. We suggest that the repetition of the “warming has paused” message by contrarians was adopted by the scientific community in its problem-solving and answer-seeking role and has led to undue focus on, and mislabeling of, a recent fluctuation. We present an alternative framing that could have avoided inadvertently reinforcing a misleading claim.
Author Stephan Lewandowsky; James S. Risbey; Naomi Oreskes
DOI 10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00106.1
Issue 5
Journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Pages 723-733
Title The “pause” in global warming: Turning a routine fluctuation into a problem for science
Volume 97
Year 2016
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 19435
_uuid 06be584c-b7c6-4c08-8792-caf54bf51a43