reference : Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall

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/reference/0b846847-a6c6-41a3-9bc8-fd626fc9a997
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract We estimate, for current and future climates, the annual probability of areally averaged hurricane rain of Hurricane Harvey’s magnitude by downscaling large numbers of tropical cyclones from three climate reanalyses and six climate models. For the state of Texas, we estimate that the annual probability of 500 mm of area-integrated rainfall was about 1% in the period 1981–2000 and will increase to 18% over the period 2081–2100 under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) AR5 representative concentration pathway 8.5. If the frequency of such event is increasingly linearly between these two periods, then in 2017 the annual probability would be 6%, a sixfold increase since the late 20th century.
Author Emanuel, Kerry
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1716222114
Date November 28, 2017
Issue 48
Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Pages 12681-12684
Title Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall
Volume 114
Year 2017
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 23318
_uuid 0b846847-a6c6-41a3-9bc8-fd626fc9a997