reference : Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: A multi-scale attribution analysis

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/reference/11eb2b3a-c442-451d-ae0a-fafaae46d648
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The role of anthropogenic forcings in temperature changes during recent decades is investigated over a range of spatial scales. Changes in the annual mean surface temperature and also in the warmest night of the year, which has implications for human health, are considered. Distributions of regional trends with and without the effect of human activity are produced, using constraints from a global optimal detection analysis. Anthropogenic forcings are estimated to have more than doubled the likelihood of mean warming in all regions considered except central North America, where results are more model dependent. The likelihood of warming of the warmest night has also increased, but the estimated change is more uncertain. Inferences on sub-continental scales are indicative rather than definitive because of the absence of locally important forcings and processes in model simulations, as well as model biases. As model inconsistencies may impact regional analyses, a multi-model approach is essential.
Author Christidis, Nikolaos; Stott, Peter A.; Zwiers, Francis W.; Shiogama, Hideo; Nozawa, Toru
DOI 10.1007/s00382-009-0615-7
Issue 7
Journal Climate Dynamics
Pages 1139-1156
Title Probabilistic estimates of recent changes in temperature: A multi-scale attribution analysis
Volume 34
Year 2010
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 19543
_uuid 11eb2b3a-c442-451d-ae0a-fafaae46d648