reference : North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract A statistical–stochastic model of the complete life cycle of North Atlantic (NA) tropical cyclones (TCs) is used to examine the relationship between climate and landfall rates along the North American Atlantic and Gulf Coasts. The model draws on archived data of TCs throughout the North Atlantic to estimate landfall rates at high geographic resolution as a function of the ENSO state and one of two different measures of sea surface temperature (SST): 1) SST averaged over the NA subtropics and the hurricane season and 2) this SST relative to the seasonal global subtropical mean SST (termed relSST). Here, the authors focus on SST by holding ENSO to a neutral state. Jackknife uncertainty tests are employed to test the significance of SST and relSST landfall relationships. There are more TC and major hurricane landfalls overall in warm years than cold, using either SST or relSST, primarily due to a basinwide increase in the number of storms. The signal along the coast, however, is complex. Some regions have large and significant sensitivity (e.g., an approximate doubling of annual major hurricane landfall probability on Texas from −2 to +2 standard deviations in relSST), while other regions have no significant sensitivity (e.g., the U.S. mid-Atlantic and Northeast coasts). This geographic structure is due to both shifts in the regions of primary TC genesis and shifts in TC propagation.
Author Timothy Hall; Emmi Yonekura
DOI 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00756.1
Issue 21
Journal Journal of Climate
Keywords Hurricanes/typhoons,Stochastic models,Risk assessment
Pages 8422-8439
Title North American tropical cyclone landfall and SST: A statistical model study
Volume 26
Year 2013
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 20604
_uuid 134b5712-13e2-4837-b710-027fe9028e8f