reference : Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Surface and satellite-based observations show a decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent during the past 46 years. A comparison of these trends to control and transient integrations (forced by observed greenhouse gases and tropospheric sulfate aerosols) from the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory and Hadley Centre climate models reveals that the observed decrease in Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent agrees with the transient simulations, and both trends are much larger than would be expected from natural climate variations. From long-term control runs of climate models, it was found that the probability of the observed trends resulting from natural climate variability, assuming that the models' natural variability is similar to that found in nature, is less than 2 percent for the 1978–98 sea ice trends and less than 0.1 percent for the 1953–98 sea ice trends. Both models used here project continued decreases in sea ice thickness and extent throughout the next century.
Author Vinnikov, Konstantin Y.; Robock, Alan; Stouffer, Ronald J.; Walsh, John E.; Parkinson, Claire L.; Cavalieri, Donald J.; Mitchell, John F. B.; Garrett, Donald; Zakharov, Victor F.
DOI 10.1126/science.286.5446.1934
Issue 5446
Journal Science
Pages 1934-1937
Title Global warming and Northern Hemisphere sea ice extent
Volume 286
Year 1999
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 20811
_uuid 194b98dd-59c1-403c-8b8f-a2475bbeb05f