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reference : Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases
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/reference/28ca9177-5df9-4912-b2a7-292c0a60726d
/reference/28ca9177-5df9-4912-b2a7-292c0a60726d
Referencing Publications:
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- /reference/28ca9177-5df9-4912-b2a7-292c0a60726d
- /report/nca3/chapter/decision-support/reference/28ca9177-5df9-4912-b2a7-292c0a60726d
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Referenced Publication:
article
| reftype | Journal Article |
| Abstract | This article described three heuristics that are employed in making judgements under uncertainty: (i) representativeness, which is usually employed when people are asked to judge the probability that an object or event A belongs to class or process B; (ii) availability of instances or scenarios, which is often employed when people are asked to assess the frequency of a class or the plausibility of a particular development; and (iii) adjustment from an anchor, which is usually employed in numerical prediction when a relevant value is available. These heuristics are highly economical and usually effective, but they lead to systematic and predictable errors. A better understanding of these heuristics and of the biases to which they lead could improve judgements and decisions in situations of uncertainty. |
| Author | Tversky, Amos Kahneman, Daniel |
| DOI | 10.1126/science.185.4157.1124 |
| Date | September 27, 1974 |
| Issue | 4157 |
| Journal | Science |
| Pages | 1124-1131 |
| Title | Judgment under uncertainty: Heuristics and biases |
| Volume | 185 |
| Year | 1974 |
| .reference_type | 0 |
| _chapter | ["Ch. 26: Decision Support FINAL"] |
| _record_number | 4459 |
| _uuid | 28ca9177-5df9-4912-b2a7-292c0a60726d |
