reference : Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States

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/reference/2c728c37-ab8c-4270-9b27-68cb2a47b1b5
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Past attempts to estimate rainfall-driven flood risk across the US either have incomplete coverage, coarse resolution or use overly simplified models of the flooding process. In this paper, we use a new 30 m resolution model of the entire conterminous US with a 2D representation of flood physics to produce estimates of flood hazard, which match to within 90% accuracy the skill of local models built with detailed data. These flood depths are combined with exposure datasets of commensurate resolution to calculate current and future flood risk. Our data show that the total US population exposed to serious flooding is 2.6–3.1 times higher than previous estimates, and that nearly 41 million Americans live within the 1% annual exceedance probability floodplain (compared to only 13 million when calculated using FEMA flood maps). We find that population and GDP growth alone are expected to lead to significant future increases in exposure, and this change may be exacerbated in the future by climate change.
Author Wing, Oliver E. J.; Paul D. Bates; Andrew M. Smith; Christopher C. Sampson; Kris A. Johnson; Joseph Fargione; Philip Morefield
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/aaac65
ISSN 1748-9326
Issue 3
Journal Environmental Research Letters
Pages 034023
Title Estimates of present and future flood risk in the conterminous United States
Volume 13
Year 2018
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 26620
_uuid 2c728c37-ab8c-4270-9b27-68cb2a47b1b5