reference : Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Equilibrium climate sensitivity measures the long‐term response of surface temperature to changes in atmospheric CO2. The range of climate sensitivities in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report is unchanged from that published almost 30 years earlier in the Charney Report. We conduct perfect model experiments using an energy balance model to study the rate at which uncertainties might be reduced by observation of global temperature and ocean heat uptake. We find that a climate sensitivity of 1.5°C can be statistically distinguished from 3°C by 2030, 3°C from 4.5°C by 2040, and 4.5°C from 6°C by 2065. Learning rates are slowest in the scenarios of greatest concern (high sensitivities), due to a longer ocean response time, which may have bearing on wait‐and‐see versus precautionary mitigation policies. Learning rates are optimistic in presuming the availability of whole ocean heat data but pessimistic by using simple aggregated metrics and model physics.
Author Urban, Nathan M.; Philip B. Holden; Neil R. Edwards; Ryan L. Sriver; Klaus Keller
DOI 10.1002/2014GL059484
Issue 7
Journal Geophysical Research Letters
Pages 2543-2552
Title Historical and future learning about climate sensitivity
Volume 41
Year 2014
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 25207
_uuid 42bc9f08-7214-47a8-b4b0-b796d5db390b