reference : Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought

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/reference/5592b6e0-1793-4ad7-89cd-e979f53e7d22
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract To date, the research community has failed to reach a consensus on the nature and significance of the relationship between climate variability and armed conflict. We argue that progress has been hampered by insufficient attention paid to the context in which droughts and other climatic extremes may increase the risk of violent mobilization. Addressing this shortcoming, this study presents an actor-oriented analysis of the drought–conflict relationship, focusing specifically on politically relevant ethnic groups and their sensitivity to growing-season drought under various political and socioeconomic contexts. To this end, we draw on new conflict event data that cover Asia and Africa, 1989–2014, updated spatial ethnic settlement data, and remote sensing data on agricultural land use. Our procedure allows quantifying, for each ethnic group, drought conditions during the growing season of the locally dominant crop. A comprehensive set of multilevel mixed effects models that account for the groups’ livelihood, economic, and political vulnerabilities reveals that a drought under most conditions has little effect on the short-term risk that a group challenges the state by military means. However, for agriculturally dependent groups as well as politically excluded groups in very poor countries, a local drought is found to increase the likelihood of sustained violence. We interpret this as evidence of the reciprocal relationship between drought and conflict, whereby each phenomenon makes a group more vulnerable to the other.
Author von Uexkull, Nina; Croicu, Mihai; Fjelde, Hanne; Buhaug, Halvard
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1607542113
Date November 1, 2016
Issue 44
Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Pages 12391-12396
Title Civil conflict sensitivity to growing-season drought
Volume 113
Year 2016
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 22038
_uuid 5592b6e0-1793-4ad7-89cd-e979f53e7d22