reference : Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the last glacial maximum

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/reference/5d1f7a08-7654-4bba-b7a3-ae77fed9c109
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Assessing the impact of future anthropogenic carbon emissions is currently impeded by uncertainties in our knowledge of equilibrium climate sensitivity to atmospheric carbon dioxide doubling. Previous studies suggest 3 kelvin (K) as the best estimate, 2 to 4.5 K as the 66% probability range, and nonzero probabilities for much higher values, the latter implying a small chance of high-impact climate changes that would be difficult to avoid. Here, combining extensive sea and land surface temperature reconstructions from the Last Glacial Maximum with climate model simulations, we estimate a lower median (2.3 K) and reduced uncertainty (1.7 to 2.6 K as the 66% probability range, which can be widened using alternate assumptions or data subsets). Assuming that paleoclimatic constraints apply to the future, as predicted by our model, these results imply a lower probability of imminent extreme climatic change than previously thought.
Author Schmittner, Andreas Urban, Nathan M. Shakun, Jeremy D. Mahowald, Natalie M. Clark, Peter U. Bartlein, Patrick J. Mix, Alan C. Rosell-Melé, Antoni
DOI 10.1126/science.1203513
Date December 9, 2011
Issue 6061
Journal Science
Pages 1385-1388
Title Climate sensitivity estimated from temperature reconstructions of the last glacial maximum
URL http://www.sciencemag.org/content/334/6061/1385.abstract
Volume 334
Year 2011
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]
_record_number 3744
_uuid 5d1f7a08-7654-4bba-b7a3-ae77fed9c109