reference : Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections

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/reference/5d518479-27a0-47b4-b30b-4b84f25fe4d2
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Coral reefs are among the most biodiverse ecosystems in the world. Today they are threatened by numerous stressors, including warming ocean waters and coastal pollution. Here we focus on the implications of ocean acidification for the open ocean chemistry surrounding coral reefs, as estimated from earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 5 (CMIP5). We project risks to reefs in the context of three potential aragonite saturation (Ωa) thresholds. We find that in preindustrial times, 99.9% of reefs adjacent to open ocean in the CMIP5 ensemble were located in regions with Ωa > 3.5. Under a business-as-usual scenario (RCP 8.5), every coral reef considered will be surrounded by water with Ωa < 3 by the end of the 21st century and the reefs’ long-term fate is independent of their specific saturation threshold. However, under scenarios with significant CO 2 emissions abatement, the Ωa threshold for reefs is critical to projecting their fate. Our results indicate that to maintain a majority of reefs surrounded by waters with Ωa > 3.5 to the end of the century, very aggressive reductions in emissions are required. The spread of Ωa projections across models in the CMIP5 ensemble is narrow, justifying a high level of confidence in these results.
Author Ricke, K. L.; Orr, J. C.; Schneider, K.; Caldeira, K.
DOI 10.1088/1748-9326/8/3/034003
Database Provider Institute of Physics
Date 2013
ISSN 1748-9326
Issue 3
Journal Environmental Research Letters
Language en
Pages 034003
Title Risks to coral reefs from ocean carbonate chemistry changes in recent earth system model projections
Volume 8
Year 2013
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 22506
_uuid 5d518479-27a0-47b4-b30b-4b84f25fe4d2