reference : Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West Nile virus vectors

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/reference/7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract While estimates of the impact of climate change on health are necessary for health care planners and climate change policy makers, models to produce quantitative estimates remain scarce. This study describes a freely available dynamic simulation model parameterized for three West Nile virus vectors, which provides an effective tool for studying vectorborne disease risk due to climate change. The Dynamic Mosquito Simulation Model is parameterized with species-specific temperature-dependent development and mortality rates. Using downscaled daily weather data, this study estimates mosquito population dynamics under current and projected future climate scenarios for multiple locations across the country. Trends in mosquito abundance were variable by location; however, an extension of the vector activity periods, and by extension disease risk, was almost uniformly observed. Importantly, midsummer decreases in abundance may be offset by shorter extrinsic incubation periods, resulting in a greater proportion of infective mosquitoes. Quantitative descriptions of the effect of temperature on the virus and mosquito are critical to developing models of future disease risk.
Author Brown, Heidi E.; Alex Young; Joceline Lega; Theodore G. Andreadis; Jessica Schurich; Andrew Comrie
DOI 10.1175/ei-d-15-0008.1
Issue 18
Journal Earth Interactions
Keywords Ecological models,Disease,Ecological models,Local effects
Pages 1-18
Title Projection of climate change influences on U.S. West Nile virus vectors
Volume 19
Year 2015
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 23667
_uuid 7a2ecd14-047d-4b75-8fb8-939f99e23c08