reference : Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing

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/reference/7ede85ab-94c5-46e3-8bb5-0d98844a98db
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Severe thunderstorms comprise an extreme class of deep convective clouds and produce high-impact weather such as destructive surface winds, hail, and tornadoes. This study addresses the question of how severe thunderstorm frequency in the United States might change because of enhanced global radiative forcing associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations. We use global climate models and a high-resolution regional climate model to examine the larger-scale (or “environmental”) meteorological conditions that foster severe thunderstorm formation. Across this model suite, we find a net increase during the late 21st century in the number of days in which these severe thunderstorm environmental conditions (NDSEV) occur. Attributed primarily to increases in atmospheric water vapor within the planetary boundary layer, the largest increases in NDSEV are shown during the summer season, in proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic coastal regions. For example, this analysis suggests a future increase in NDSEV of 100% or more in locations such as Atlanta, GA, and New York, NY. Any direct application of these results to the frequency of actual storms also must consider the storm initiation.
Author Trapp, R.J. Diffenbaugh, N.S. Brooks, H.E. Baldwin, M.E. Robinson, E.D. Pal, J.S.
DOI 10.1073/pnas.0705494104
ISSN 0027-8424
Issue 50
Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences
Keywords climate change; United States; convective storm
Pages 19719-19723
Title Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing
Volume 104
Year 2007
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]
_record_number 3086
_uuid 7ede85ab-94c5-46e3-8bb5-0d98844a98db