reference : A risk‐based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world

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/reference/809a243e-7f50-4660-9eeb-f21f1d2cfbd1
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Traditional approaches to flood management in a nonstationary world begin with a null hypothesis test of “no trend” and its likelihood, with little or no attention given to the likelihood that we might ignore a trend if it really existed. Concluding a trend exists when it does not, or rejecting a trend when it exists are known as type I and type II errors, respectively. Decision‐makers are poorly served by statistical and/or decision methods that do not carefully consider both over‐ and under‐preparation errors, respectively. Similarly, little attention is given to how to integrate uncertainty in our ability to detect trends into a flood management decision context. We show how trend hypothesis test results can be combined with an adaptation's infrastructure costs and damages avoided to provide a rational decision approach in a nonstationary world. The criterion of expected regret is shown to be a useful metric that integrates the statistical, economic, and hydrological aspects of the flood management problem in a nonstationary world.
Author Rosner, Ana; Vogel, Richard M.; Kirshen, Paul H.
DOI 10.1002/2013WR014561
Issue 3
Journal Water Resources Research
Pages 1928-1942
Title A risk‐based approach to flood management decisions in a nonstationary world
Volume 50
Year 2014
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 25383
_uuid 809a243e-7f50-4660-9eeb-f21f1d2cfbd1