reference : Global trends in emerging infectious diseases

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) are a significant burden on global economies and public health. Their emergence is thought to be driven largely by socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, but no comparative study has explicitly analysed these linkages to understand global temporal and spatial patterns of EIDs. Here we analyse a database of 335 EID 'events' (origins of EIDs) between 1940 and 2004, and demonstrate non-random global patterns. EID events have risen significantly over time after controlling for reporting bias, with their peak incidence (in the 1980s) concomitant with the HIV pandemic. EID events are dominated by zoonoses (60.3% of EIDs): the majority of these (71.8%) originate in wildlife (for example, severe acute respiratory virus, Ebola virus), and are increasing significantly over time. We find that 54.3% of EID events are caused by bacteria or rickettsia, reflecting a large number of drug-resistant microbes in our database. Our results confirm that EID origins are significantly correlated with socio-economic, environmental and ecological factors, and provide a basis for identifying regions where new EIDs are most likely to originate (emerging disease 'hotspots'). They also reveal a substantial risk of wildlife zoonotic and vector-borne EIDs originating at lower latitudes where reporting effort is low. We conclude that global resources to counter disease emergence are poorly allocated, with the majority of the scientific and surveillance effort focused on countries from where the next important EID is least likely to originate.
Author Jones, K. E.; Patel, N. G.; Levy, M. A.; Storeygard, A.; Balk, D.; Gittleman, J. L.; Daszak, P.
DOI 10.1038/nature06536
Date Feb 21
ISSN 1476-4687
Issue 7181
Journal Nature
Keywords Animals; Communicable Diseases, Emerging/*epidemiology/microbiology/transmission/virology; Databases, Factual; Drug Resistance, Microbial; Environment; Geography; Humans; Incidence; Risk; Socioeconomic Factors; Zoonoses/epidemiology/microbiology/transmission/virology
Notes Jones, Kate E Patel, Nikkita G Levy, Marc A Storeygard, Adam Balk, Deborah Gittleman, John L Daszak, Peter eng R01 AI079231/AI/NIAID NIH HHS/ R01 TW005869/TW/FIC NIH HHS/ T32 HD007338/HD/NICHD NIH HHS/ Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S. England 2008/02/22 09:00 Nature. 2008 Feb 21;451(7181):990-3. doi: 10.1038/nature06536.
Pages 990-993
Title Global trends in emerging infectious diseases
Volume 451
Year 2008
Bibliographic identifiers
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