reference : Projections of future drought in the continental United States and Mexico

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/reference/948ffa58-24f3-4129-90c3-8d49f3172f74
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Using the Palmer drought severity index, the ability of 19 state-of-the-art climate models to reproduce observed statistics of drought over North America is examined. It is found that correction of substantial biases in the models’ surface air temperature and precipitation fields is necessary. However, even after a bias correction, there are significant differences in the models’ ability to reproduce observations. Using metrics based on the ability to reproduce observed temporal and spatial patterns of drought, the relationship between model performance in simulating present-day drought characteristics and their differences in projections of future drought changes is investigated. It is found that all models project increases in future drought frequency and severity. However, using the metrics presented here to increase confidence in the multimodel projection is complicated by a correlation between models’ drought metric skill and climate sensitivity. The effect of this sampling error can be removed by changing how the projection is presented, from a projection based on a specific time interval to a projection based on a specified temperature change. This modified class of projections has reduced intermodel uncertainty and could be suitable for a wide range of climate change impacts projections.
Author Wehner, M. Easterling, D.R. Lawrimore, J.H. Heim Jr, R.R. Vose, R.S. Santer, B.D.
DOI 10.1175/2011JHM1351.1
ISSN 1525-7541
Issue 6
Journal Journal of Hydrometeorology
Keywords Drought, ; North America, ; Climate models, ; Climate change
Pages 1359-1377
Title Projections of future drought in the continental United States and Mexico
URL http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/2011JHM1351.1
Volume 12
Year 2011
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL","Ch. 3: Water Resources FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]
_record_number 3375
_uuid 948ffa58-24f3-4129-90c3-8d49f3172f74