reference : Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract We present regional sea-level projections and associated uncertainty estimates for the end of the 21 st century. We show regional projections of sea-level change resulting from changing ocean circulation, increased heat uptake and atmospheric pressure in CMIP5 climate models. These are combined with model- and observation-based regional contributions of land ice, groundwater depletion and glacial isostatic adjustment, including gravitational effects due to mass redistribution. A moderate and a warmer climate change scenario are considered, yielding a global mean sea-level rise of 0.54 ±0.19 m and 0.71 ±0.28 m respectively (mean ±1σ). Regionally however, changes reach up to 30 % higher in coastal regions along the North Atlantic Ocean and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, and up to 20 % higher in the subtropical and equatorial regions, confirming patterns found in previous studies. Only 50 % of the global mean value is projected for the subpolar North Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Ocean and off the western Antarctic coast. Uncertainty estimates for each component demonstrate that the land ice contribution dominates the total uncertainty.
Author Slangen, A. B. A.; Carson, M.; Katsman, C. A.; van de Wal, R. S. W.; Köhl, A.; Vermeersen, L. L. A.; Stammer, D.
DOI 10.1007/s10584-014-1080-9
ISSN 1573-1480
Issue 1
Journal Climatic Change
Pages 317-332
Title Projecting twenty-first century regional sea-level changes
Volume 124
Year 2014
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 19980
_uuid 99cff8ea-3607-415a-be6b-c4c8d76f888f