reference : Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes

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/reference/9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The effects of climate change on north temperate freshwater ecosystems include increasing water temperatures and decreasing ice cover. Here we compare those trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes at three spatial scales to evaluate how warming varies across the surface of these massive inland water bodies. We compiled seasonal ice cover duration (1973–2013) and lake summer surface water temperatures (LSSWT; 1994–2013), and analyzed spatial patterns and trends at lake-wide, lake sub-basin, and fine spatial scales and compared those to reported lake- and basin-wide trends. At the lake-wide scale we found declining ice duration and warming LSSWT patterns consistent with previous studies. At the lake sub-basin scale, our statistical models identified distinct warming trends within each lake that included significant breakpoints in ice duration for 13 sub-basins, consistent linear declines in 11 sub-basins, and no trends in 4 sub-basins. At the finest scale, we found that the northern- and eastern-most portions of each Great Lake, especially in nearshore areas, have experienced faster rates of LSSWT warming and shortening ice duration than those previously reported from trends at the lake scale. We conclude that lake-level analyses mask significant spatial and temporal variation in warming patterns within the Laurentian Great Lakes. Recognizing spatial variability in rates of change can inform both mechanistic modeling of ecosystem responses and planning for long-term management of these large freshwater ecosystems.
Author Mason, Lacey A.; Riseng, Catherine M.; Gronewold, Andrew D.; Rutherford, Edward S.; Wang, Jia; Clites, Anne; Smith, Sigrid D. P.; McIntyre, Peter B.
DOI 10.1007/s10584-016-1721-2
Date September 01
ISSN 1573-1480
Issue 1
Journal Climatic Change
Pages 71-83
Title Fine-scale spatial variation in ice cover and surface temperature trends across the surface of the Laurentian Great Lakes
Type of Article journal article
Volume 138
Year 2016
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 21117
_uuid 9db319af-7cec-440e-8dda-41526fed6cd0