reference : An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Author A combination of media attention and the declaration of a World Health Organization state of emergency have made the pandemic expansion of Zika virus a topic of great public concern. Understanding the threat North America faces from the still-expanding viral range requires an understanding of the historical range and ecology of the disease, a topic currently difficult to study due to incomplete occurrence data. We compile the most comprehensive geospatial dataset of Zika occurrences in its native range, beginning with its discovery in 1947, and build bioclimatic models that set an outer bound on where the virus is likely to persist. Our results suggest Zika is likely far more constrained than the closely-related dengue fever, on which many projections have been based. While Zika poses a serious threat in current outbreak regions and is clearly a high-priority neglected tropical disease, our models suggest that even under an extreme climate change scenario for 2050, the disease is unlikely to become cosmopolitan in most temperate regions as a vector-borne disease, a discrepant finding from the results of non-ensemble modeling methods. Despite that, sexual transmission remains a serious public health concern, and a route by which Zika could become a severe public health emergency in temperate zones, including in the United States.
Author Carlson, Colin J.; Dougherty, Eric R.; Getz, Wayne
DOI 10.1371/journal.pntd.0004968
Issue 8
Journal PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Pages e0004968
Publisher Public Library of Science
Title An ecological assessment of the pandemic threat of Zika virus
Volume 10
Year 2016
Bibliographic identifiers
_record_number 24055
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