reference : Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations

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/reference/a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The rapid retreat and thinning of the Arctic sea ice cover over the past several decades is one of the most striking manifestations of global climate change. Previous research revealed that the observed downward trend in September ice extent exceeded simulated trends from most models participating in the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3). We show here that as a group, simulated trends from the models contributing to CMIP5 are more consistent with observations over the satellite era (1979–2011). Trends from most ensemble members and models nevertheless remain smaller than the observed value. Pointing to strong impacts of internal climate variability, 16% of the ensemble member trends over the satellite era are statistically indistinguishable from zero. Results from the CMIP5 models do not appear to have appreciably reduced uncertainty as to when a seasonally ice-free Arctic Ocean will be realized.
Author Stroeve, J.C. Kattsov, V. Barrett, A. Serreze, M. Pavlova, T. Holland, M. Meier, W.N.
DOI 10.1029/2012GL052676
ISSN 0094-8276
Issue 16
Journal Geophysical Research Letters
Pages L16502
Title Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations
Volume 39
Year 2012
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Ch. 24: Oceans FINAL","Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]
_record_number 2976
_uuid a60d1734-9067-4e1e-9699-d8e998dfa4d3