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reference : Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model

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Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
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reftype Journal Article
Abstract A flowline ice sheet model is coupled to a box model for cavity circulation and configured for the Pine Island Glacier. An ensemble of 5000 simulations are carried out from 1900 to 2200 with varying inputs and parameters, forced by ocean temperatures predicted by a regional ocean model under the A1B ‘business as usual’ emissions scenario. Comparison is made against recent observations to provide a calibrated prediction in the form of a 95% confidence set. Predictions are for monotonic (apart from some small scale fluctuations in a minority of cases) retreat of the grounding line over the next 200 yr with huge uncertainty in the rate of retreat. Full collapse of the main trunk of the PIG during the 22nd century remains a possibility.
Author Gladstone, Rupert M. Lee, Victoria Rougier, Jonathan Payne, Antony J. Hellmer, Hartmut Le Brocq, Anne Shepherd, Andrew Edwards, Tamsin L. Gregory, Jonathan Cornford, Stephen L.
DOI 10.1016/j.epsl.2012.04.022
ISSN 0012-821X
Journal Earth and Planetary Science Letters
Keywords West Antarctic ice sheet; Pine Island Glacier; calibrated prediction; marine ice sheet instability; ice sheet modelling
Pages 191-199
Title Calibrated prediction of Pine Island Glacier retreat during the 21st and 22nd centuries with a coupled flowline model
Volume 333–334
Year 2012
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter ["Ch. 2: Our Changing Climate FINAL"]
_record_number 168
_uuid ad5ef44d-eb60-4510-9368-f74be9f72f52