reference : A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The new scenario framework for climate change research envisions combining pathways of future radiative forcing and their associated climate changes with alternative pathways of socioeconomic development in order to carry out research on climate change impacts, adaptation, and mitigation. Here we propose a conceptual framework for how to define and develop a set of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) for use within the scenario framework. We define SSPs as reference pathways describing plausible alternative trends in the evolution of society and ecosystems over a century timescale, in the absence of climate change or climate policies. We introduce the concept of a space of challenges to adaptation and to mitigation that should be spanned by the SSPs, and discuss how particular trends in social, economic, and environmental development could be combined to produce such outcomes. A comparison to the narratives from the scenarios developed in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) illustrates how a starting point for developing SSPs can be defined. We suggest initial development of a set of basic SSPs that could then be extended to meet more specific purposes, and envision a process of application of basic and extended SSPs that would be iterative and potentially lead to modification of the original SSPs themselves.
Author O’Neill, Brian C.; Kriegler, Elmar; Riahi, Keywan; Ebi, Kristie L.; Hallegatte, Stephane; Carter, Timothy R.; Mathur, Ritu; van Vuuren, Detlef P.
DOI 10.1007/s10584-013-0905-2
Date February 01
ISSN 1573-1480
Issue 3
Journal Climatic Change
Pages 387-400
Title A new scenario framework for climate change research: The concept of shared socioeconomic pathways
Type of Article journal article
Volume 122
Year 2014
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_chapter Ch10
_record_number 16544
_uuid ae138b1a-a619-4312-a671-0f671a85662b