reference : Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise

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reftype Journal Article
Abstract Polar temperatures over the last several million years have, at times, been slightly warmer than today, yet global mean sea level has been 6–9 metres higher as recently as the Last Interglacial (130,000 to 115,000 years ago) and possibly higher during the Pliocene epoch (about three million years ago). In both cases the Antarctic ice sheet has been implicated as the primary contributor, hinting at its future vulnerability. Here we use a model coupling ice sheet and climate dynamics—including previously underappreciated processes linking atmospheric warming with hydrofracturing of buttressing ice shelves and structural collapse of marine-terminating ice cliffs—that is calibrated against Pliocene and Last Interglacial sea-level estimates and applied to future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. Antarctica has the potential to contribute more than a metre of sea-level rise by 2100 and more than 15 metres by 2500, if emissions continue unabated. In this case atmospheric warming will soon become the dominant driver of ice loss, but prolonged ocean warming will delay its recovery for thousands of years.
Author DeConto, Robert M.; Pollard, David
DOI 10.1038/nature17145
Date 03/31/print
ISSN 0028-0836
Issue 7596
Journal Nature
Pages 591-597
Title Contribution of Antarctica to past and future sea-level rise
Volume 531
Year 2016
Bibliographic identifiers
.publisher Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.
.reference_type 0
_record_number 19404
_uuid ae82c8a3-3033-4103-91e9-926a27d1fa18