reference : Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure

JSON YAML text HTML Turtle N-Triples JSON Triples RDF+XML RDF+JSON Graphviz SVG
/reference/b42c8878-6dbf-4014-a389-bb14da5ad4ee
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The average latitude where tropical cyclones (TCs) reach their peak intensity has been observed to be shifting poleward in some regions over the past 30 years, apparently in concert with the independently observed expansion of the tropical belt. This poleward migration is particularly well observed and robust in the western North Pacific Ocean (WNP). Such a migration is expected to cause systematic changes, both increases and decreases, in regional hazard exposure and risk, particularly if it persists through the present century. Here, it is shown that the past poleward migration in the WNP has coincided with decreased TC exposure in the region of the Philippine and South China Seas, including the Marianas, the Philippines, Vietnam, and southern China, and increased exposure in the region of the East China Sea, including Japan and its Ryukyu Islands, the Korea Peninsula, and parts of eastern China. Additionally, it is shown that projections of WNP TCs simulated by, and downscaled from, an ensemble of numerical models from phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) demonstrate a continuing poleward migration into the present century following the emissions projections of the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). The projected migration causes a shift in regional TC exposure that is very similar in pattern and relative amplitude to the past observed shift. In terms of regional differences in vulnerability and resilience based on past TC exposure, the potential ramifications of these future changes are significant. Questions of attribution for the changes are discussed in terms of tropical belt expansion and Pacific decadal sea surface temperature variability.
Author James P. Kossin; Kerry A. Emanuel; Suzana J. Camargo
DOI 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0076.1
Issue 16
Journal Journal of Climate
Keywords Geographic location/entity,North Pacific Ocean,Atm/Ocean Structure/ Phenomena,Hurricanes/typhoons,Models and modeling,Climate models,Variability,Multidecadal variability,Pacific decadal oscillation,Trends
Pages 5725-5739
Title Past and projected changes in western North Pacific tropical cyclone exposure
Volume 29
Year 2016
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 19745
_uuid b42c8878-6dbf-4014-a389-bb14da5ad4ee