reference : A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models

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/reference/ebecfd39-93d8-468d-8ad8-6080c1956de0
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract The response of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones to climate change is investigated in the climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). In contrast to previous multimodel studies, a feature-tracking algorithm is here applied to separately quantify the responses in the number, the wind intensity, and the precipitation intensity of extratropical cyclones. Moreover, a statistical framework is employed to formally assess the uncertainties in the multimodel projections. Under the midrange representative concentration pathway (RCP4.5) emission scenario, the December–February (DJF) response is characterized by a tripolar pattern over Europe, with an increase in the number of cyclones in central Europe and a decreased number in the Norwegian and Mediterranean Seas. The June–August (JJA) response is characterized by a reduction in the number of North Atlantic cyclones along the southern flank of the storm track. The total number of cyclones decreases in both DJF (−4%) and JJA (−2%). Classifying cyclones according to their intensity indicates a slight basinwide reduction in the number of cyclones associated with strong winds, but an increase in those associated with strong precipitation. However, in DJF, a slight increase in the number and intensity of cyclones associated with strong wind speeds is found over the United Kingdom and central Europe. The results are confirmed under the high-emission RCP8.5 scenario, where the signals tend to be larger. The sources of uncertainty in these projections are discussed.
Author Giuseppe Zappa; Len C. Shaffrey; Kevin I. Hodges; Phil G. Sansom; David B. Stephenson
DOI 10.1175/jcli-d-12-00573.1
Issue 16
Journal Journal of Climate
Keywords Extratropical cyclones,Climate change,Climate models,Model comparison
Pages 5846-5862
Title A multimodel assessment of future projections of North Atlantic and European extratropical cyclones in the CMIP5 climate models
Volume 26
Year 2013
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 20611
_uuid ebecfd39-93d8-468d-8ad8-6080c1956de0