reference : Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation

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reftype Journal Article
Abstract Anthropogenic global warming is driven by emissions of a wide variety of radiative forcers ranging from very short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), like black carbon, to very long-lived, like CO2. These species are often released from common sources and are therefore intricately linked. However, for reasons of simplification, this CO2-SLCF linkage was often disregarded in long-term projections of earlier studies. Here we explicitly account for CO2-SLCF linkages and show that the short- and long-term climate effects of many SLCF measures consistently become smaller in scenarios that keep warming to below 2 degrees C relative to preindustrial levels. Although long-term mitigation of methane and hydrofluorocarbons are integral parts of 2 degrees C scenarios, early action on these species mainly influences near-term temperatures and brings small benefits for limiting maximum warming relative to comparable reductions taking place later. Furthermore, we find that maximum 21st-century warming in 2 degrees C-consistent scenarios is largely unaffected by additional black-carbon-related measures because key emission sources are already phased-out through CO2 mitigation. Our study demonstrates the importance of coherently considering CO2-SLCF coevolutions. Failing to do so leads to strongly and consistently overestimating the effect of SLCF measures in climate stabilization scenarios. Our results reinforce that SLCF measures are to be considered complementary rather than a substitute for early and stringent CO2 mitigation. Near-term SLCF measures do not allow for more time for CO2 mitigation. We disentangle and resolve the distinct benefits across different species and therewith facilitate an integrated strategy for mitigating both short and long-term climate change.
Accession Number 25368182
Author Rogelj, J.; Schaeffer, M.; Meinshausen, M.; Shindell, D. T.; Hare, W.; Klimont, Z.; Velders, G. J.; Amann, M.; Schellnhuber, H. J.
Author Address Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland; Energy Program and Mitigation of Air Pollution & Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria; john@pik-potsdam.de rogelj@iiasa.ac.at. Climate Analytics gGmbH, 10969 Berlin, Germany; Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research Centre, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands; School of Earth Sciences, The University of Melbourne, 3010 Melbourne, VIC, Australia; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708; Climate Analytics gGmbH, 10969 Berlin, Germany; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Energy Program and Mitigation of Air Pollution & Greenhouse Gases Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria; National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 3720 BA Bilthoven, The Netherlands; and. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14412 Potsdam, Germany; Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM 87501 john@pik-potsdam.de rogelj@iiasa.ac.at.
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1415631111
Date Nov 18
ISSN 1091-6490 (Electronic) 0027-8424 (Linking)
Issue 46
Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA
Keywords air pollution; black carbon; carbon dioxide; climate change mitigation; short-lived climate forcers
Notes Rogelj, Joeri Schaeffer, Michiel Meinshausen, Malte Shindell, Drew T Hare, William Klimont, Zbigniew Velders, Guus J M Amann, Markus Schellnhuber, Hans Joachim eng 2014/11/05 06:00 Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2014 Nov 18;111(46):16325-30. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1415631111. Epub 2014 Nov 3.
PMCID PMC4246330
Pages 16325-30
Title Disentangling the effects of CO2 and short-lived climate forcer mitigation
Volume 111
Year 2014
Bibliographic identifiers
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