reference : Emission pathways to achieve 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C climate targets

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Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract We investigated the feasibilities of 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C climate targets by considering the abatement potentials of a full suite of greenhouse gases, pollutants, and aerosols. We revised the inter-temporal dynamic optimization model DICE-2013R by introducing three features as follows. First, we applied a new marginal abatement cost curve derived under moderate assumptions regarding future socioeconomic development-the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 2 (SSP2) scenario. Second, we addressed emission abatement for not only industrial CO2 but also land-use CO2, CH4, N2O, halogenated gases, CO, volatile organic compounds, SOx, NOx, black carbon and organic carbon. Third, we improved the treatment of the non-CO2 components in the climate module based on MAGICC 6.0. We obtained the following findings: (1) It is important to address the individual emissions in an analysis of low stabilization scenarios because abating land-use CO2, non-CO2 and aerosol emissions also contributes to maintaining a low level of radiative forcing and substantially affects the climate costs. (2) The 2.0 degrees C target can be efficiently reached under the assumptions of the SSP2 scenario. (3) The 1.5 degrees C target can be met with early deep cuts under the assumption of a temperature overshoot, and it will triple the carbon price and double the mitigation cost compared with the 2.0 degrees C case.
Accession Number WOS:000405474400004
Alternate Title Earths Future
Author Su, X. M.; Takahashi, K.; Fujimori, S.; Hasegawa, T.; Tanaka, K.; Kato, E.; Shiogama, H.; Masui, T.; Emori, S.
Author Address Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Social & Environm Syst Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan IIASA, Energy Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria IIASA, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria Natl Inst Environm Studies, Ctr Global Environm Res, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Inst Appl Energy, Global Environm Program, Tokyo, Japan
DOI 10.1002/2016ef000492
Date Jun
ISSN 2328-4277
Issue 6
Journal Earths Future
Keywords 2 degrees-C; land-use; air-pollution; mitigation; scenarios; policy; energy; model; CO2; representation
Language English
Notes Fa5hs Times Cited:7 Cited References Count:54
Pages 592-604
Title Emission pathways to achieve 2.0 degrees C and 1.5 degrees C climate targets
Volume 5
Year 2017
Bibliographic identifiers
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