reference : Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts

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/reference/fd4179fd-259b-4059-b48b-ac3bff200d01
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract Trustworthy probabilistic projections of regional climate are essential for society to plan for future climate change, and yet, by the nonlinear nature of climate, finite computational models of climate are inherently deficient in their ability to simulate regional climatic variability with complete accuracy. How can we determine whether specific regional climate projections may be untrustworthy in the light of such generic deficiencies? A calibration method is proposed whose basis lies in the emerging notion of seamless prediction. Specifically, calibrations of ensemble-based climate change probabilities are derived from analyses of the statistical reliability of ensemble-based forecast probabilities on seasonal time scales. The method is demonstrated by calibrating probabilistic projections from the multimodel ensembles used in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), based on reliability analyses from the seasonal forecast Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal-to-Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) dataset. The focus in this paper is on climate change projections of regional precipitation, though the method is more general.
Author T. N. Palmer; F. J. Doblas-Reyes; A. Weisheimer; M. J. Rodwell
DOI 10.1175/bams-89-4-459
Issue 4
Journal Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society
Pages 459-470
Title Toward seamless prediction: Calibration of climate change projections using seasonal forecasts
Volume 89
Year 2008
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 20896
_uuid fd4179fd-259b-4059-b48b-ac3bff200d01