Figure : projection-development-patterns-2030

Projection of Development Patterns in 2030

Figure 21


This figure appears in the Our Changing Planet: The U.S. Climate Change Science Program for Fiscal Year 2006 report.

Using a cell-based urban model (SLEUTH), projections of development patterns in 2030 were created assuming three different policy scenarios (current trends, managed growth, and low growth). SLEUTH was calibrated using Landsat-derived maps of the built environment that documented development patterns between 1986 and 2000. This data set provided a baseline that the calibrated model used to extrapolate patterns into the future. Following business-as-usual patterns of low density and dispersed development, this model projects that the amount of developed land could increase 123%, putting at least 1,300 km2 of forests and 1,537 km2 of agricultural lands at risk. Credit: C. Jantz and S. Goetz, The Woods Hole Research Center.

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