You are viewing /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4 in Turtle
Alternatives : HTML JSON YAML text N-Triples JSON Triples RDF+XML RDF+JSON Graphviz SVG
Raw
@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-11-4";
   gcis:findingNumber "11.4"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "It is <em>very likely</em> that human activities have contributed to observed arctic surface temperature warming, sea ice loss, glacier mass loss, and Northern Hemisphere snow extent decline (<em>high confidence</em>)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "Evidenced by the multiple independent studies, analysis techniques, and the array of different climate models used over the last 20 years, it is <em>very likely</em> that human activities have contributed to arctic surface temperature warming, sea ice loss since 1979, glacier mass loss, and Northern Hemisphere snow extent decline observed across the Arctic. Key uncertainties remain in the understanding and modeling of arctic climate variability; however, many independent studies indicate that internal variability alone cannot explain the trends or extreme events observed in arctic temperature and sea ice over the satellite era."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "<p> The Key Finding is supported by many attribution studies using a wide array of climate models documenting the anthropogenic influence on arctic temperature, sea ice, mountain glaciers, and snow extent. Observation-based analyses also support an anthropogenic influence. Najafi et al. show that the greenhouse warming signal in the Arctic could be even stronger, as a significant portion of greenhouse gas induced warming (approximately 60%) has been offset by anthropogenic aerosol emissions. The emerging science of extreme event attribution indicates that natural variability alone could not have caused the recently observed record low arctic sea ice extents, such as in September 2012. Natural variability in the Arctic is significant, however the majority of studies indicate that the contribution from individual sources of internal variability to observed trends in arctic temperature and sea ice are less than 50% and alone cannot explain the observed trends over the satellite era. This Key Finding marks an increased confidence relative to the IPCC AR5 moving from <em>likely</em> to <em>very likely</em>. In our assessment, the new understanding of the anthropogenic forcing, its relationship to arctic climate change, arctic climate variability, and especially extreme event attribution studies reaffirms previous studies and warrants the increased likelihood of an anthropogenic influence on arctic climate change. Multiple lines evidence, independent analysis techniques, models, and studies support the Key Finding."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is <em>high confidence</em> that human activities have contributed to arctic surface temperature warming, sea ice loss since 1979, glacier mass loss, and Northern Hemisphere snow extent given multiple independent analysis techniques from independent groups using many different climate models indicate the same conclusion.\r\n<br><p>\r\nArctic sea ice and glacier mass loss impacts the United States by affecting coastal erosion in Alaska and key Alaskan fisheries through an increased vulnerability to ocean acidification. Glacier mass loss is a significant driver of sea level rise threatening coastal communities in the United States and worldwide, influencing marine ecology, and potentially altering the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation.\r\n</p></br>"^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "A major limiting factor in our ability to attribute arctic sea ice and glacier melt to human activities is the significant natural climate variability in the Arctic. Longer data records and a better understanding of the physical mechanisms that drive natural climate variability in the Arctic are required to reduce this uncertainty. Another major uncertainty is the ability of climate models to capture the relevant physical processes and climate changes at a fine spatial scale, especially those at the land and ocean surface in the Arctic."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/7/3/034011>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/02cefa48-7195-4d2e-aff7-f460824987ec>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/sciadv.1601666>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/061347c5-780e-4419-a1bd-89b645241daf>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.286.5446.1934>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/194b98dd-59c1-403c-8b8f-a2475bbeb05f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2012GL051094>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2f6d49a9-d59a-43db-8e0e-8a3d6e881c54>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter14-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/541fc57b-d7ad-4617-97de-2df91f99afc0>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/srep02645>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/559ac612-3dd1-41d3-921c-0a77d4ff366d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter10-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/57fea764-f852-4539-ab1e-8010701383c7>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00563.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/5d53feca-729f-4b68-ba22-8022f94af9b4>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0412.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6d2a6ea3-2248-43a2-ad47-064c9fe3315a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2012GL052868>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e730a84-66a2-4e74-96cb-c9e6824cf185>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo338>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/772b18ec-300e-4531-867b-beac17bc0ebd>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1029/2007GL029703>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7e602d53-52c5-47b3-847e-26293d76b622>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.aag2345>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/9c6fbb6f-30a4-4b15-a2a1-6b6bb7960020>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate2524>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aa75c0a9-fe6d-43cc-938c-62328d5ff643>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate2483>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c7f78878-ec71-47fe-b5d0-e7b64241740f>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1254702>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/dc9d8bb2-9388-4e4a-8976-88c6b825fafc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2014GL060184>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/de0cccc8-faff-4214-9057-a52da62e2abc>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/bams-d-13-00085.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e2234cdf-e361-477d-82af-ef4a344c5890>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016GL070067>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e22c21b2-3019-4394-9579-bb1d4c3ec73a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nclimate3241>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/ea982647-594e-4911-9cd2-4330ba1f97c4>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/arctic/finding/key-finding-11-4>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.