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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-5-1";
   gcis:findingNumber "5.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "There is <em>very high confidence</em> in projected changes in temperature extremes over the United States based upon the convergence of evidence from multiple model simulations, analyses, and assessments."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The tropics have expanded poleward in each hemisphere over the period 1979–2009 (<em>medium</em> to <em>high confidence</em>) as shown by a large number of studies using a variety of metrics, observations and reanalysis. Modeling studies and theoretical considerations illustrate that human activities, including increases in greenhouse gases, ozone depletion, and anthropogenic aerosols, cause a widening of the tropics. There is <em>medium confidence</em> that human activities have contributed to the observed poleward expansion, taking into account uncertainties in the magnitude of observed trends and a possible large contribution of natural climate variability."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "The Key Finding is supported by statements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Fifth Assessment Report and a large number of more recent studies that examined the magnitude of the observed tropical widening and various causes. Additional evidence for an impact of greenhouse gas increases on the widening of the tropical belt and poleward shifts of the midlatitude jets is provided by the diagnosis of CMIP5 simulations. There is emerging evidence for an impact of anthropogenic aerosols on the tropical expansion in the Northern Hemisphere. Recent studies provide new evidence on the significance of internal variability on recent changes in the tropical width."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "<em>Medium to high confidence</em> that the tropics and related features of the global circulation have expanded poleward is based upon the results of a large number of observational studies, using a wide variety of metrics and data sets, which reach similar conclusions. A large number of studies utilizing modeling of different complexity and theoretical considerations provide compounding evidence that human activities, including increases in greenhouse gases, ozone depletion, and anthropogenic aerosols, contributed to the observed poleward expansion of the tropics. Climate models forced with these anthropogenic drivers cannot explain the observed magnitude of tropical expansion and some studies suggest a possibly large contribution of internal variability. These multiple lines of evidence lead to the conclusion of <em>medium confidence</em> that human activities contributed to observed expansion of the tropics."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "The rate of observed expansion of tropics depends on which metric is used. The linkages between different metrics are not fully explored. Uncertainties also result from the utilization of reanalysis to determine trends and from limited observational records of free atmosphere circulation, precipitation, and evaporation. The dynamical mechanisms behind changes in the width of the tropical belt (e.g., tropical–extratropical interactions and baroclinic eddies) are not fully understood. There is also a limited understanding of how various climate forcings, such as anthropogenic aerosols, affect the width of tropics. The coarse horizontal and vertical resolution of global climate models may limit the ability of these models to properly resolve latitudinal changes in the atmospheric circulation. Limited observational records affect the ability to accurately estimate the contribution of natural decadal to multi-decadal variability on observed expansion of the tropics."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/jgrd.50610>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/025b4915-8b20-4d53-b097-c737d39f3d62>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/acp-13-10081-2013>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/37d85f6f-8d91-45e8-bf65-0ae8aee523a6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/qj.2456>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/46b31794-a9c0-402d-a813-a65c4e87097b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter02-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/47a5196b-4fba-4fdb-8647-8945627725bb>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature18273>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/633af288-eb2c-4e4f-b5ba-9397ad897d7d>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2015GL064559>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6e2d8723-4a29-4bea-97d2-b300a6c18cd6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/wcc.251>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/798360ca-4177-462c-991a-c7a512d9287c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00536.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/938444d5-cf1e-43b2-93d8-d8e403a23344>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s00382-014-2129-1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a03de91a-43b9-4ca8-ba49-b9a55c28c493>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00287.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a80ce47f-ac9a-43d2-9179-acad0e28e05a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/nature11097>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/aaf41b2e-d066-40c4-8bbf-d14ed62e13d6>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/6d4365af-7f98-405b-b91e-0fb4144e83e4>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/afc9d3fd-49bb-413c-bdec-75d9b75c2b8b>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00140.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c18f45a8-0b79-49ed-b24f-98e994961b8a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1038/ngeo2091>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c84efce6-8036-4c20-bf98-d0d5b987cd2c>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0138.1>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c933c170-d353-4a2b-8855-d6b147d58d16>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1063/PT.3.2620>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d377ad38-12f5-4186-998f-5643dfc6d141>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2015GL066942>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d5eb689b-306c-4092-92ab-80958283a00c>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/circulation-variability/finding/key-finding-5-1>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.