Figure : cssr_fig_3-1a_rev_apr_6_2017

Global Mean Temperature Change

Figure 3.1

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Thomas R. Knutson

This figure appears in chapter 3 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

Comparison of observed global mean temperature anomalies from three observational datasets to CMIP5 climate model historical experiments using: (a) anthropogenic and natural forcings combined, or (b) natural forcings only. In (a) the thick orange curve is the CMIP5 grand ensemble mean across 36 models while the orange shading and outer dashed lines depict the ±2 standard deviation and absolute ranges of annual anomalies across all individual simulations of the 36 models. Model data are a masked blend of surface air temperature over land regions and sea surface temperature over ice-free ocean regions to be more consistent with observations than using surface air temperature alone. All time series (°F) are referenced to a 1901–1960 baseline value. The simulations in (a) have been extended from 2006 through 2016 using projections under the higher scenario (RCP8.5). (b) As in (a) but the blue curves and shading are based on 18 CMIP5 models using natural forcings only. See legends to identify observational datasets. Observations after about 1980 are shown to be inconsistent with the natural forcing-only models (indicating detectable warming) and also consistent with the models that include both anthropogenic and natural forcing, implying that the warming is attributable in part to anthropogenic forcing according to the models. (Figure source: adapted from Melillo et al. 03be45df-f87d-410b-ac82-96332f5438d7 2014 and Knutson et al. 30db4465-656b-433c-9d33-63eee28aa49a).

Free to use with credit to the original figure source.

The time range for this figure is January 01, 1880 (00:00 AM) to December 31, 2020 (23:59 PM).

This figure was created on April 17, 2017.

This figure was submitted on September 29, 2017.

This figure was derived from figure 2.3: Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate .
This figure was derived from Prospects for a prolonged slowdown in global warming in the early 21st century .

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