reference : Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California

JSON YAML text HTML Turtle N-Triples JSON Triples RDF+XML RDF+JSON Graphviz SVG
/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/drought-floods-hydrology/reference/89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151
Referencing Publications:
chapter
chapter
report
chapter
chapter
chapter
chapter
chapter
finding
finding
finding
finding
finding
finding

Reference URIs:
Bibliographic fields
reftype Journal Article
Abstract California is currently in the midst of a record-setting drought. The drought began in 2012 and now includes the lowest calendar-year and 12-mo precipitation, the highest annual temperature, and the most extreme drought indicators on record. The extremely warm and dry conditions have led to acute water shortages, groundwater overdraft, critically low streamflow, and enhanced wildfire risk. Analyzing historical climate observations from California, we find that precipitation deficits in California were more than twice as likely to yield drought years if they occurred when conditions were warm. We find that although there has not been a substantial change in the probability of either negative or moderately negative precipitation anomalies in recent decades, the occurrence of drought years has been greater in the past two decades than in the preceding century. In addition, the probability that precipitation deficits co-occur with warm conditions and the probability that precipitation deficits produce drought have both increased. Climate model experiments with and without anthropogenic forcings reveal that human activities have increased the probability that dry precipitation years are also warm. Further, a large ensemble of climate model realizations reveals that additional global warming over the next few decades is very likely to create ∼100% probability that any annual-scale dry period is also extremely warm. We therefore conclude that anthropogenic warming is increasing the probability of co-occurring warm–dry conditions like those that have created the acute human and ecosystem impacts associated with the “exceptional” 2012–2014 drought in California.
Author Diffenbaugh, Noah S.; Swain, Daniel L.; Touma, Danielle
DOI 10.1073/pnas.1422385112
Date March 31, 2015
Issue 13
Journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Pages 3931-3936
Title Anthropogenic warming has increased drought risk in California
Volume 112
Year 2015
Bibliographic identifiers
.reference_type 0
_record_number 19545
_uuid 89e08a41-6091-45fa-a92e-6168a90a8151