Figure : es_rcp-scenarios_v5

Greater Emissions Lead to Significantly More Warming

Figure -.3

Texas Tech University
Katharine Hayhoe

This figure appears in chapter executive-summary of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

The two panels above show annual historical and a range of plausible future carbon emissions in units of gigatons of carbon (GtC) per year (left) and the historical observed and future temperature change that would result for a range of future scenarios relative to the 1901–1960 average, based on the central estimate (lines) and a range (shaded areas, two standard deviations) as simulated by the full suite of CMIP5 global climate models (right). By 2081–2100, the projected range in global mean temperature change is 1.1°–4.3°F under the even lower scenario (RCP2.6; 0.6°–2.4°C, green), 2.4°–5.9°F under the lower scenario (RCP4.5; 1.3°–3.3°C, blue), 3.0°–6.8°F under the mid-high scenario (RCP6.0; 1.6°–3.8°C, not shown) and 5.0°–10.2°F under the higher scenario (RCP8.5; 2.8°–5.7°C, orange). See the main report for more details on these scenarios and implications. Based Figure 4.1 in on Chapter 4.

Free to use with credit to the original figure source.

This figure was created on April 28, 2017.

This figure was submitted on September 29, 2017.

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