Figure 9.2

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Thomas R. Knutson

This figure appears in chapter 9 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

Tracks of simulated Saffir–Simpson Category 4–5 tropical cyclones for (a) present-day or (b) late-21st-century conditions, based on dynamical downscaling of climate conditions from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble (lower scenario; RCP4.5). The tropical cyclones were initially simulated using a 50-km grid global atmospheric model, but each individual tropical cyclone was re-simulated at higher resolution using the GFDL hurricane model to provide more realistic storm intensities and structure. Storm categories or intensities are shown over the lifetime of each simulated storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale. The categories are depicted by the track colors, varying from tropical storm (blue) to Category 5 (black; see legend). (Figure source: Knutson et al. 2015;4f1e7aa1-0c36-4220-ac77-7d55bcb33061 © American Meteorological Society. Used with permission.)

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This figure was created on September 12, 2016.

This figure was submitted on October 04, 2017.

References :

• Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 scenarios (4f1e7aa1)

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