Confidence / Likelihood

Figure -.2

University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
Donald J. Wuebbles

This figure appears in chapter front-matter of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

Confidence levels and likelihood statements used in the report. (Figure source: adapted from USGCRP 2016f1e633d5-070a-4a7d-935b-a2281a0c9cb6 and IPCC 2013f03117be-ccfe-4f88-b70a-ffd4351b8190; likelihoods use the broader range from the IPCC assessment). As an example, regarding “likely,” a 66%–100% probability can be interpreted as a likelihood of greater than 2 out of 3 chances for the statement to be certain or true. Not all likelihoods are used in the report.

Free to use with credit to the original figure source.

This figure was created on September 09, 2016.

This figure was submitted on October 02, 2017.

• 1 finding was derived from this figure : finding climate-science-special-report 1.1.

References :

• Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis (f03117be)
• The Impacts of Climate Change on Human Health in the United States: A Scientific Assessment (f1e633d5)