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Figure : temperature-targets
Global Emission Pathways for Greenhouse Gases
Figure 14.3National Center for Atmospheric Research
Benjamin M. Sanderson
This figure appears in chapter 14 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.
Global emissions pathways for GHGs, expressed as CO2-equivalent emissions, which would be consistent with different temperature goals (relative to preindustrial temperatures). INDCs refer to Intended Nationally Determined Contributions which is the term used for the governments’ announced actions in the lead up to Paris. (a) shows a set of pathways where global mean temperatures would likely (66%) not exceed 2.7°F (1.5°C). A number of pathways are consistent with the goal, ranging from the red curve (slowest near-term mitigation with large negative emissions requirements in the future) to the black curve with rapid near-term mitigation and less future negative emissions. (b) shows similar pathways with a 66% chance of exceeding 2.7°F (1.5°C) for only 50 years, where (c) and (d) show similar emission pathways for 3.6°F (2°C). (Figure source: Sanderson et al. 2016bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69 ).
Free to use with credit to the original figure source.
This figure was created on October 14, 2016.
This figure was submitted on September 21, 2017.
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