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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-14-1";
   gcis:findingNumber "14.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Reducing net emissions of CO<sub>2</sub> is necessary to limit near-term climate change and long-term warming. Other greenhouse gases (for example, methane) and black carbon aerosols exert stronger warming effects than CO<sub>2</sub> on a per ton basis, but they do not persist as long in the atmosphere; therefore, mitigation of non-CO<sub>2</sub> species contributes substantially to near-term cooling benefits but cannot be relied upon for ultimate stabilization goals. (<em>Very high confidence</em>)"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The qualitative statements contained in Key Finding 1 reflect aspects of fundamental scientific understanding, well grounded in the literature, that provide a relevant framework for considering the role of CO<sub>2</sub> and non-CO<sub>2</sub> species in mitigating climate change."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "Joos et al. and Ciais et al. (see Box 6.1 in particular) describe the climate response of CO<sub>2</sub> pulse emissions, and Solomon et al., NRC, and Collins et al. describe the long-term warming and other climate effects associated with CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. Paltsev et al. and Collins et al. describe the near-term vs. long-term nature of climate outcomes resulting from GHG mitigation. Myhre et al. synthesize numerous studies detailing information about the radiative forcing effects and atmospheric lifetimes of all GHGs and aerosols (see in particular Appendix 8A therein). A recent body of literature has emerged highlighting the particular role that non-CO<sub>2</sub> mitigation can play in providing near-term cooling benefits (e.g., Shindell et al. 2012; Zaelke and Borgford-Parnell 2015; Rogelj et al. 2015). For each of the individual statements made in Key Finding 1, there are numerous literature sources that provide consistent grounds on which to make these statements with <em>very high confidence</em>."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "Key Finding 1 is comprised of qualitative statements based on a body of literature for which there is a high level of agreement. There is a well-established understanding, based in the literature, of the atmospheric lifetime and warming effects of CO<sub>2</sub> vs. other GHGs after emission, and in turn how atmospheric concentration levels respond following the emission of CO<sub>2</sub> and other GHGs."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "The Key Finding is comprised of qualitative statements that are traceable to the literature described above and in this chapter. Uncertainties affecting estimates of the exact timing and magnitude of the climate response following emissions (or avoidance of those emissions) of CO<sub>2</sub> and other GHGs involve the quantity of emissions, climate sensitivity, some uncertainty about the removal time or atmospheric lifetime of CO<sub>2</sub> and other GHGs, and the choice of model carrying out future simulations. The role of black carbon in climate change is more uncertain compared to the role of the well-mixed GHGs (see Bond et al. 2013)."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/16610639-a18d-4e02-b55e-b82a41005e9e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/17451eb2-574e-4bc3-9196-c4ffe4ba23af>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s13412-014-0215-7>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6247384e-71f2-4d68-870e-e382cec05137>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.0812721106>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/640b9ae9-3351-48d1-b897-557db63a6cfd>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter08-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/6c7c285c-8606-41fe-bf93-100d80f1d17a>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter06-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/7316c70f-6b67-4a68-a23a-c9d9f604c003>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0892-3>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/8bfa125a-bd59-4ae1-9aa0-a0b0cf5d8cbb>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1126/science.1210026>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a65e5260-d143-49dd-b20e-c0fefddbef70>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/nrc-stabilization-targets-2011>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a8b2d884-2bfb-4a5a-bfa4-a28bd4d68ca9>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter12-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b3bbc7b5-067e-4c23-8d9b-59faee21e58e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/jgrd.50171>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c024a923-aedd-4e72-8555-3a37ccc41e14>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-1>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.