--- - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Abstract: 'Limiting global warming to any level requires limiting the total amount of CO 2 emissions, or staying within a CO 2 budget. Here we assess how emissions from short-lived non-CO 2 species like methane, hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs), black-carbon, and sulphates influence these CO 2 budgets. Our default case, which assumes mitigation in all sectors and of all gases, results in a CO 2 budget between 2011–2100 of 340 PgC for a >66% chance of staying below 2°C, consistent with the assessment of the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Extreme variations of air-pollutant emissions from black-carbon and sulphates influence this budget by about ±5%. In the hypothetical case of no methane or HFCs mitigation—which is unlikely when CO 2 is stringently reduced—the budgets would be much smaller (40% or up to 60%, respectively). However, assuming very stringent CH 4 mitigation as a sensitivity case, CO 2 budgets could be 25% higher. A limit on cumulative CO 2 emissions remains critical for temperature targets. Even a 25% higher CO 2 budget still means peaking global emissions in the next two decades, and achieving net zero CO 2 emissions during the third quarter of the 21st century. The leverage we have to affect the CO 2 budget by targeting non-CO 2 diminishes strongly along with CO 2 mitigation, because these are partly linked through economic and technological factors.' Author: Joeri Rogelj; Malte Meinshausen; Michiel Schaeffer; Reto Knutti; Keywan Riahi DOI: 10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001 Issue: 7 Journal: Environmental Research Letters Pages: 075001 Title: Impact of short-lived non-CO 2 mitigation on carbon budgets for stabilizing global warming Volume: 10 Year: 2015 _record_number: 20844 _uuid: 17451eb2-574e-4bc3-9196-c4ffe4ba23af reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1088/1748-9326/10/7/075001 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/17451eb2-574e-4bc3-9196-c4ffe4ba23af.yaml identifier: 17451eb2-574e-4bc3-9196-c4ffe4ba23af uri: /reference/17451eb2-574e-4bc3-9196-c4ffe4ba23af - attrs: .publisher: Macmillan Publishers Limited. All rights reserved .reference_type: 0 Author: 'Allen, Myles R.; Frame, David J.; Huntingford, Chris; Jones, Chris D.; Lowe, Jason A.; Meinshausen, Malte; Meinshausen, Nicolai' DOI: 10.1038/nature08019 Date: 04/30/print Issue: 7242 Journal: Nature Pages: 1163-1166 Title: Warming caused by cumulative carbon emissions towards the trillionth tonne Volume: 458 Year: 2009 _record_number: 20048 _uuid: 44137105-aa0e-4e33-afc5-0d6c84115504 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1038/nature08019 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/44137105-aa0e-4e33-afc5-0d6c84115504.yaml identifier: 44137105-aa0e-4e33-afc5-0d6c84115504 uri: /reference/44137105-aa0e-4e33-afc5-0d6c84115504 - attrs: .reference_type: 9 Author: NRC DOI: 10.17226/12877 ISBN: 0-309-15176-7 Number of Pages: 298 Place Published: 'Washington, D.C.' Publisher: National Research Council. The National Academies Press Reviewer: a8b2d884-2bfb-4a5a-bfa4-a28bd4d68ca9 Title: 'Climate Stabilization Targets: Emissions, Concentrations, and Impacts over Decades to Millennia' URL: http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12877 Year: 2011 _chapter: '["RF 10","Ch. 4: Energy Supply and Use FINAL","Appendix 4: FAQs FINAL","Ch. 27: Mitigation FINAL","Ch. 7: Forests FINAL","Appendix 3: Climate Science FINAL"]' _record_number: 2309 _uuid: a8b2d884-2bfb-4a5a-bfa4-a28bd4d68ca9 reftype: Book child_publication: /report/nrc-stabilization-targets-2011 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/a8b2d884-2bfb-4a5a-bfa4-a28bd4d68ca9.yaml identifier: a8b2d884-2bfb-4a5a-bfa4-a28bd4d68ca9 uri: /reference/a8b2d884-2bfb-4a5a-bfa4-a28bd4d68ca9 - attrs: .reference_type: 7 Author: M. Collins; R. Knutti; J. Arblaster; J.-L. Dufresne; T. Fichefet; P. Friedlingstein; X. Gao; W.J. Gutowski; T. Johns; G. Krinner; M. Shongwe; C. Tebaldi; A.J. Weaver; M. Wehner Book Title: 'Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change' Editor: T.F. Stocker; D. Qin; G.-K. Plattner; M. Tignor; S.K. Allen; J. Boschung; A. Nauels; Y. Xia; V. Bex; P.M. Midgley ISBN: ISBN 978-1-107-66182-0 Pages: 1029–1136 Place Published: 'Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA' Publisher: Cambridge University Press Title: 'Long-term climate change: Projections, commitments and irreversibility' URL: http://www.climatechange2013.org/report/full-report/ Year: 2013 _record_number: 16452 _uuid: b3bbc7b5-067e-4c23-8d9b-59faee21e58e reftype: Book Section child_publication: /report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter12-final href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b3bbc7b5-067e-4c23-8d9b-59faee21e58e.yaml identifier: b3bbc7b5-067e-4c23-8d9b-59faee21e58e uri: /reference/b3bbc7b5-067e-4c23-8d9b-59faee21e58e - attrs: .reference_type: 0 Author: "Sanderson, Benjamin M.; O'Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia" DOI: 10.1002/2016GL069563 Issue: 13 Journal: Geophysical Research Letters Keywords: emissions; climate; targets; 1622 Earth system modeling; 3305 Climate change and variability; 3320 Idealized model; 3333 Model calibration; 6309 Decision making under uncertainty Pages: 7133-7142 Title: What would it take to achieve the Paris temperature targets? Volume: 43 Year: 2016 _record_number: 20058 _uuid: bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.1002/2016GL069563 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69.yaml identifier: bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69 uri: /reference/bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69 - attrs: .publisher: Copernicus Publications .reference_type: 0 Author: "Le Quéré, C.; Andrew, R. M.; Canadell, J. G.; Sitch, S.; Korsbakken, J. I.; Peters, G. P.; Manning, A. C.; Boden, T. A.; Tans, P. P.; Houghton, R. A.; Keeling, R. F.; Alin, S.; Andrews, O. D.; Anthoni, P.; Barbero, L.; Bopp, L.; Chevallier, F.; Chini, L. P.; Ciais, P.; Currie, K.; Delire, C.; Doney, S. C.; Friedlingstein, P.; Gkritzalis, T.; Harris, I.; Hauck, J.; Haverd, V.; Hoppema, M.; Klein Goldewijk, K.; Jain, A. K.; Kato, E.; Körtzinger, A.; Landschützer, P.; Lefèvre, N.; Lenton, A.; Lienert, S.; Lombardozzi, D.; Melton, J. R.; Metzl, N.; Millero, F.; Monteiro, P. M. S.; Munro, D. R.; Nabel, J. E. M. S.; Nakaoka, S. I.; O'Brien, K.; Olsen, A.; Omar, A. M.; Ono, T.; Pierrot, D.; Poulter, B.; Rödenbeck, C.; Salisbury, J.; Schuster, U.; Schwinger, J.; Séférian, R.; Skjelvan, I.; Stocker, B. D.; Sutton, A. J.; Takahashi, T.; Tian, H.; Tilbrook, B.; van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T.; van der Werf, G. R.; Viovy, N.; Walker, A. P.; Wiltshire, A. J.; Zaehle, S." DOI: 10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 ISSN: 1866-3516 Issue: 2 Journal: Earth System Science Data Pages: 605-649 Title: Global carbon budget 2016 Volume: 8 Year: 2016 _record_number: 20486 _uuid: e10cd7fc-e821-474a-bbde-74426a52b1d0 reftype: Journal Article child_publication: /article/10.5194/essd-8-605-2016 href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e10cd7fc-e821-474a-bbde-74426a52b1d0.yaml identifier: e10cd7fc-e821-474a-bbde-74426a52b1d0 uri: /reference/e10cd7fc-e821-474a-bbde-74426a52b1d0