---
chapter:
  doi: 10.7930/J0M32SZG
  identifier: mitigation-pathways
  number: 14
  report_identifier: climate-science-special-report
  sort_key: 16
  title: Perspectives on Climate Change Mitigation
  url: https://science2017.globalchange.gov/chapter/14/
chapter_identifier: mitigation-pathways
cited_by: []
confidence: 'There is <em>high</em> confidence in this key finding because a number of analyses have examined the implications of these announcements and have come to similar conclusions, as captured in this key finding.'
contributors: []
evidence: 'The primary source supporting this key finding is Fawcett et al.;<tbib>2c0a368b-b699-4640-98c9-7799c9e6b18a</tbib> it is also supported by Rogelj et al.,<tbib>c34c20b8-6d8a-41ba-8f34-1ed561aceeb8</tbib> Sanderson et al.,<tbib>bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69</tbib> and the Climate Action Tracker.<tbib>e210c59e-516f-4f73-9649-5b8b407e7b4f</tbib> Each of these analyses evaluated the global climate implications of the aggregation of the individual country contributions thus far put forward under the Paris Agreement.'
files: []
gcmd_keywords: []
href: https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-3.yaml
identifier: key-finding-14-3
ordinal: 3
parents:
  - activity_uri: ~
    label: 'figure -.2: Confidence / Likelihood'
    note: ''
    publication_type_identifier: figure
    relationship: prov:wasDerivedFrom
    url: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood
process: 'Different analyses have estimated the implications for global mean temperature of the emissions reductions consistent with the actions announced by governments in the lead up to the 2015 Paris climate conference and have reached similar conclusions. Assuming emissions reductions indicated in these announcements are achieved, along with a range of climate sensitivities, these contributions provide some likelihood of meeting the long-term goal of limiting global warming to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels, but much depends on assumptions about what happens after 2030.'
references:
  - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/2c0a368b-b699-4640-98c9-7799c9e6b18a.yaml
    uri: /reference/2c0a368b-b699-4640-98c9-7799c9e6b18a
  - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69.yaml
    uri: /reference/bf91f878-c82a-409b-8d96-e21320366a69
  - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/c34c20b8-6d8a-41ba-8f34-1ed561aceeb8.yaml
    uri: /reference/c34c20b8-6d8a-41ba-8f34-1ed561aceeb8
  - href: https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/e210c59e-516f-4f73-9649-5b8b407e7b4f.yaml
    uri: /reference/e210c59e-516f-4f73-9649-5b8b407e7b4f
regions: []
report_identifier: climate-science-special-report
statement: 'Achieving global greenhouse gas emissions reductions before 2030 consistent with targets and actions announced by governments in the lead up to the 2015 Paris climate conference would hold open the possibility of meeting the long-term temperature goal of limiting global warming to 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels, whereas there would be virtually no chance if global net emissions followed a pathway well above those implied by country announcements. Actions in the announcements are, by themselves, insufficient to meet a 3.6°F (2°C) goal; the likelihood of achieving that goal depends strongly on the magnitude of global emissions reductions after 2030. (<em>High confidence</em>)'
uncertainties: 'The largest uncertainty lies in the assumption of achieving emissions reductions consistent with the announcements prior to December 2015; these reductions are assumed to be achieved but could either be over- or underachieved. This in turn creates uncertainty about the extent of emissions reductions that would be needed after the first round of government announcements in order to achieve the 2°C or any other target. The response of the climate system, the climate sensitivity, is also a source of uncertainty; the Fawcett et al. analysis used the IPCC AR5 range, 1.5° to 4.5<span id="_Hlk480634117" class="anchor"></span>°C.'
uri: /report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/mitigation-pathways/finding/key-finding-14-3
url: ~