table : dates-illustrating-cumulative-co2-emissions-thresholds

Dates illustrating when cumulative CO2 emissions thresholds associated with eventual warming of 3.6°F or 2.7°F above preindustrial levels might be reached

table 14.1


This table appears in chapter 14 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

Dates illustrating when cumulative CO2 emissions thresholds associated with eventual warming of 3.6°F or 2.7°F above preindustrial levels might be reached. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 refer, respectively, to emissions consistent with the lower and higher scenarios used throughout this report. The estimated cumulative CO2 emissions (measured in Gigatons (Gt) of carbon) associated with different probabilities (e.g., >66%) of preventing 3.6°F (2°C) of warming are from the IPCC. The cumulative emissions compatible with 2.7°F (1.5°C) are linearly derived from the estimates associated with 3.6°F (2°C). The cumulative CO2 estimates take into account the additional net warming effects associated with past and future non-CO2 emissions consistent with the RCP scenarios. Historical CO2 emissions from 1870–2015 (including fossil fuel combustion, land use change, and cement manufacturing) are from Le Quéré et al

This table is composed of these arrays :
0b96e08a (3x4)
Dates by when cumulative carbon emissions (GtC) since 1870 reach amount commensurate with 3.6°F (2°C), when accounting for non-CO2 forcings: >66% = 790 GtC >50% = 820 GtC >33% = 900 GtC
RCP4.5 2037 2040 2047
RCP8.5 2033 2035 2040
7fb44f68 (3x4)
Dates by when cumulative carbon emissions (GtC) since 1870 reach amount commensurate with 2.7°F (1.5°C), when accounting for non-CO2 forcings: >66% = 593 GtC >50% = 615 GtC >33% = 675 GtC
RCP4.5 2019 2021 2027
RCP8.5 2019 2021 2025
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