Figure : cssr_fig_1-6_rev_apr_6_2017

Global Mean Temperature Change

Figure 1.6


This figure appears in chapter 1 of the Climate Science Special Report: The Fourth National Climate Assessment: Volume I report.

Comparison of global mean temperature anomalies (°F) from observations (through 2016) and the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble (through 2016), using the reference period 1901–1960. The CMIP5 multimodel ensemble (orange range) is constructed from blended surface temperature (ocean regions) and surface air temperature (land regions) data from the models, masked where observations are not available in the GISTEMP dataset.30db4465-656b-433c-9d33-63eee28aa49a The importance of using blended model data is shown in Richardson et al.e00038d4-74fc-40e1-a337-0934b37b3380 The thick solid orange curve is the model ensemble mean, formed from the ensemble across 36 models of the individual model ensemble means. The shaded region shows the +/- two standard deviation range of the individual ensemble member annual means from the 36 CMIP5 models. The dashed lines show the range from maximum to minimum values for each year among these ensemble members. The sources for the three observational indices are: HadCRUT4.5 (red): http://www.metoffice.gov.uk; NOAA (black): https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov; and GISTEMP (blue): https://data.giss.nasa.gov. (NOAA and HadCRUT4 downloaded on Feb. 15, 2017; GISTEMP downloaded on Feb. 10, 2017). (Figure source: adapted from Knutson et al. 201630db4465-656b-433c-9d33-63eee28aa49a ).

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This figure was created on April 17, 2017.

This figure was submitted on October 06, 2017.

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