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@prefix dcterms: <http://purl.org/dc/terms/> .
@prefix xsd: <http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema#> .
@prefix gcis: <http://data.globalchange.gov/gcis.owl#> .
@prefix cito: <http://purl.org/spar/cito/> .
@prefix biro: <http://purl.org/spar/biro/> .

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-1>
   dcterms:identifier "key-finding-15-1";
   gcis:findingNumber "15.1"^^xsd:string;
   gcis:findingStatement "Positive feedbacks (self-reinforcing cycles) within the climate system have the potential to accelerate human-induced climate change and even shift the Earth’s climate system, in part or in whole, into new states that are very different from those experienced in the recent past (for example, ones with greatly diminished ice sheets or different large-scale patterns of atmosphere or ocean circulation). Some feedbacks and potential state shifts can be modeled and quantified; others can be modeled or identified but not quantified; and some are probably still unknown. (<em>Very high confidence</em> in the potential for state shifts and in the incompleteness of knowledge about feedbacks and potential state shifts)."^^xsd:string;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises>;
   gcis:isFindingOf <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report>;

## Properties of the finding:
   gcis:findingProcess "The key finding is based on NRC and IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 12 section 12.5.5, which made a thorough assessment of the relevant literature."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:descriptionOfEvidenceBase "This key finding is based on a large body of scientific literature recently summarized by Lenton et al., NRC, and Kopp et al. As NRC (page vii) states, “A study of Earth’s climate history suggests the inevitability of ‘tipping points’—thresholds beyond which major and rapid changes occur when crossed—that lead to abrupt changes in the climate system” and (page xi), “Can all tipping points be foreseen? Probably not. Some will have no precursors, or may be triggered by naturally occurring variability in the climate system. Some will be difficult to detect, clearly visible only after they have been crossed and an abrupt change becomes inevitable.” As IPCC AR5 WG1 Chapter 12, section 12.5.5 further states, “A number of components or phenomena within the Earth system have been proposed as potentially possessing critical thresholds (sometimes referred to as tipping points) beyond which abrupt or nonlinear transitions to a different state ensues.” Collins et al. further summarizes critical thresholds that can be modeled and others that can only be identified."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:assessmentOfConfidenceBasedOnEvidence "There is <em>very high confidence</em> in the likelihood of the existence of positive feedbacks, and the tipping elements statement is based on a large body of literature published over the last 25 years that draws from basic physics, observations, paleoclimate data, and modeling. <br><br> There is <em>very high confidence</em> that some feedbacks can be quantified, others are known but cannot be quantified, and others may yet exist that are currently unknown."^^xsd:string;
   
   gcis:newInformationAndRemainingUncertainties "The largest uncertainties are 1) whether proposed tipping elements actually undergo critical transitions; 2) the magnitude and timing of forcing that will be required to initiate critical transitions in tipping elements; 3) the speed of the transition once it has been triggered; 4) the characteristics of the new state that results from such transition; and 5) the potential for new tipping elements to exist that are yet unknown."^^xsd:string;

   a gcis:Finding .

## This finding cites the following entities:


<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1002/2016EF000362>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/08bc6610-586b-421c-a788-f5e18781ac52>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/book/0f0459d2-6347-4d90-9676-505376c1985e>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/3dcd5a73-de83-4b37-884a-5236407c170e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/ipcc-ar5-wg1/chapter/wg1-ar5-chapter12-final>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/b3bbc7b5-067e-4c23-8d9b-59faee21e58e>.

<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-1>
   cito:cites <https://data.globalchange.gov/article/10.1073/pnas.0705414105>;
   biro:references <https://data.globalchange.gov/reference/d64a3dbf-d45e-49de-98b9-b4ea32da888f>.



<https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/potential-surprises/finding/key-finding-15-1>
   prov:wasDerivedFrom <https://data.globalchange.gov/report/climate-science-special-report/chapter/front-matter/figure/confidence---likelihood>.